Beerschot VA 3-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022, 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Beerschot VA — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Beerschot VA 0.70 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Beerschot VA, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Zulte Waregem winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 39% versus Zulte Waregem 74%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 52% | Zulte Waregem 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.34 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.765 / defence 1.360 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.774 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.478. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.34 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Zulte Waregem bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 23 Beerschot VA games / 23 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 32% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 42%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Zulte Waregem 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Beerschot VA 10% | Zulte Waregem 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 32% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Beerschot VA 1.34 / Zulte Waregem 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.765 / def 1.360 | Zulte Waregem attack 0.774 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Zulte Waregem xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem?
Beerschot VA 3 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 32% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Beerschot VA's attack at 0.77x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
32%
3.13
26%
3.81
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.89
1.56
Zulte Waregem xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
11%
9.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.56 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Beerschot VA come into this having played 23 games, going 3W 3D 17L for 0.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Zulte Waregem sit at 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (6W 6D 11L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Beerschot VA's home form reads 3W 0D 8L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Zulte Waregem have taken 1.09 points per game from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L).
The Goals Picture
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.43 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 74%.
Last 23 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 3W 3D 17L in their last 23 games (0.52 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 6D 11L in their last 23 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.82 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2024, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 9%, Zulte Waregem 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Beerschot VA) and 64% (Zulte Waregem).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 73% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Zulte Waregem?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 73% of Zulte Waregem's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 64% of Zulte Waregem's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA and Zulte Waregem finished level at 3-3 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.34 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.56 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.56 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.77 / defence 1.36 against Zulte Waregem attack 0.77 / defence 1.52, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 32% | Draw 26% | Zulte Waregem 42%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 52%, Zulte Waregem 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.04 PPG against 0.52. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.