Beerschot VA 2-0 Genk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genk at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Genk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Genk travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 November 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Beerschot VA have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Beerschot VA at Olympisch Stadion this season: 1W 0D 6L from 7 home games — 0.43 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game.
Genk — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Genk have posted 3W 1D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.43 PPG. They are averaging 2.14 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Genk are 0.90 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Genk in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 43% versus Genk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 57% | Genk 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 1.14 xG and Genk 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.645 / defence 1.062 | Genk attack 1.133 / defence 1.466. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.489. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.645 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.466 — this is suppressing Beerschot VA's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Beerschot VA games / 14 Genk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 23% | Genk 53%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Genk 1.89. Genk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genk are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Beerschot VA 0% | Genk 86%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Genk | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 23% | Genk 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Beerschot VA 1.14 / Genk 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.645 / def 1.062 | Genk attack 1.133 / def 1.466 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.489 • Poisson stance: Genk (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Genk xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Genk kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Genk kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 21 November 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Beerschot VA 2 - 0 Genk.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Genk being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Genk part of?
Beerschot VA vs Genk is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 24% chance of winning, Genk a 53% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Beerschot VA and Genk will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Genk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Genk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Beerschot VA and Genk in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Genk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Genk's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, Genk's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
24%
4.13
23%
4.31
53%
1.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.93
1.79
Genk xG
4.13
24%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
1.90
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
17%
6.00
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
4%
24.79
17%
5.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Genk expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.79 for Genk, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Genk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, Beerschot VA have picked up 0.43 PPG on a 1W 3D 10L record — D-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genk's form line: 6W 3D 5L from 14 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Genk are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Beerschot VA.
Venue Form
On home soil, Beerschot VA have posted 0.43 PPG from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
On the road, Genk have gone 3W 1D 3L from 7 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Genk are on 2.00 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genk in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Genk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Genk in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 1W 3D 10L in their last 14 games (0.43 PPG), while Genk have gone 6W 3D 5L in their last 14 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Genk away?
Genk's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.43 PPG; Genk away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Genk have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2022, when Genk won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Genk specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
3
Genk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Genk?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Genk have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Genk last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Genk 1-0 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Genk?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Beerschot VA 0%, Genk 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Beerschot VA) and 71% (Genk). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 86% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Genk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Genk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 86% of Genk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Genk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Beerschot VA's matches and 71% of Genk's.
Do Beerschot VA and Genk tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Genk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Genk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Genk 2-0 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 1.14 xG and Genk 1.79 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Beerschot VA beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genk landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.65 / defence 1.06 against Genk attack 1.13 / defence 1.47, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 24% | Draw 23% | Genk 53%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Beerschot VA win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 57%, Genk 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Genk's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genk arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.43. Form was overturned, with Beerschot VA winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Genk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.14 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.