Beerschot VA 0-7 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Anderlecht at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Anderlecht travel to Olympisch Stadion to take on Beerschot VA. The game is scheduled for Monday 27 December 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Beerschot VA stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Beerschot VA, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Beerschot VA have posted 2W 0D 8L at Olympisch Stadion — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Anderlecht have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Anderlecht's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Beerschot VA's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Beerschot VA, 1 for Anderlecht and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 2–4 with Anderlecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Beerschot VA in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 32% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Beerschot VA 32% versus Anderlecht 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Beerschot VA 42% | Anderlecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Beerschot VA 0.78 xG and Anderlecht 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Beerschot VA attack 0.603 / defence 1.060 | Anderlecht attack 1.075 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.540. Beerschot VA's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 19 Beerschot VA games / 20 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Beerschot VA 16% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 61%. Fair-value odds: Beerschot VA 6.25 | Draw 4.35 | Anderlecht 1.64. The model has a clear lean to Anderlecht (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Anderlecht are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Beerschot VA 0% | Anderlecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympisch Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 Dec 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Beerschot VA 16% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 61% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Beerschot VA 0.78 / Anderlecht 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Beerschot VA attack 0.603 / def 1.060 | Anderlecht attack 1.075 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.540 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Beerschot VA xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Anderlecht xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht kick off?
Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 27 December 2021 at Olympisch Stadion.
What was the final score in Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Beerschot VA 0 - 7 Anderlecht.
Where is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Olympisch Stadion.
What competition is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht part of?
Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Beerschot VA a 16% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 61% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Beerschot VA and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
Record (1 meetings): Beerschot VA 0W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 1W.
What form are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht in?
Beerschot VA (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Beerschot VA's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Anderlecht's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Anderlecht's attack versus Beerschot VA's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.3%), 0-2 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
16%
6.17
23%
4.33
61%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Beerschot VA xG
Total xG
2.53
1.75
Anderlecht xG
6.17
16%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.65
61%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
3%
35.62
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 14.0 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Beerschot VA and 1.75 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Beerschot VA's recent record stands at 2W 3D 14L from 19 games, a 0.47 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Beerschot VA is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 9W 8D 2L across 19 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Beerschot VA heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Beerschot VA have managed 2W 0D 8L from 10 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 4W 4D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Beerschot VA are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 2.21 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 68%.
Last 19 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Beerschot VA
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Beerschot VA and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Beerschot VA have gone 2W 3D 14L in their last 19 games (0.47 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 9W 8D 2L in their last 19 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Beerschot VA at home or Anderlecht away?
Anderlecht's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Beerschot VA at home: 0.60 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Dec 2021, when Anderlecht won 0-7 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Beerschot VA's record when hosting Anderlecht specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Beerschot VA
0
Draws
3
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Beerschot VA have won 1, Anderlecht have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Beerschot VA and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 8 December 2024, when Anderlecht 2-1 Beerschot VA.
Who has won more matches between Beerschot VA and Anderlecht?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Beerschot VA 0% BTTS, Anderlecht 60%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Beerschot VA) and 60% (Anderlecht).
On the defensive side: Beerschot VA have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Beerschot VA home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Beerschot VA play Anderlecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Beerschot VA's recent matches and 60% of Anderlecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Beerschot VA vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Beerschot VA's recent games and 60% of Anderlecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Beerschot VA and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Beerschot VA have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 0-7 hammering of Beerschot VA.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Beerschot VA 0-7 at Olympisch Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Beerschot VA 0.78 xG and Anderlecht 1.75 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-7 for 7 actual goals. Anderlecht outscored their 1.75 projection by 5.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Beerschot VA attack 0.60 / defence 1.06 against Anderlecht attack 1.07 / defence 1.10, drawn from 19/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Beerschot VA 16% | Draw 23% | Anderlecht 61%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Beerschot VA 42%, Anderlecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Beerschot VA's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Anderlecht's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.47. That form edge translated into the three points. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.