Antwerp 1-1 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Antwerp at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Antwerp vs St. Truiden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 24 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 25 January 2022, 17:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Antwerp are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Antwerp, 1 for St. Truiden and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with St. Truiden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
St. Truiden trading profile (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Antwerp 64% and St. Truiden 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 59% | St. Truiden 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.04 xG and St. Truiden 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.364 / defence 0.943 | St. Truiden attack 0.541 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.508. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.364 — their λ of 2.04 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.239 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Antwerp games / 23 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 67% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 13%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | St. Truiden 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Antwerp 60% | St. Truiden 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 25 Jan 2022, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 67% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Antwerp 2.04 / St. Truiden 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.364 / def 0.943 | St. Truiden attack 0.541 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.508 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
0.77
St. Truiden xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 17:45 on Tuesday 25 January 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 1 - 1 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 67% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (1 meetings): Antwerp 0W | Draws 0 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.04
13%
7.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.81
0.77
St. Truiden xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
7.67
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
13%
7.73
Win to Nil
31%
3.21
2%
59.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Antwerp and 0.77 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 13W 4D 5L from 22 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 12L across 22 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.86 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 7W 2D 2L from 11 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 4W 1D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.05 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 games (1.95 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 7W 3D 12L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.09 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Antwerp or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 54%, St. Truiden 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Antwerp) and 36% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; St. Truiden in 36%; St. Truiden in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Antwerp's recent matches and 36% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Antwerp's recent games and 36% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Antwerp and St. Truiden share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 24, as Antwerp and St. Truiden drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.04 xG and St. Truiden 0.77 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Antwerp fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.36 / defence 0.94 against St. Truiden attack 0.54 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 67% | Draw 20% | St. Truiden 13%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 59%, St. Truiden 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
St. Truiden's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.