Antwerp 1-2 Club Brugge KV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antwerp at 43%, yet in-form Club Brugge KV provide a compelling counter-argument — this Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Antwerp host Club Brugge KV at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League (Championship Round - 7). Kick-off is Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Antwerp — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Antwerp at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Club Brugge KV have recorded 7W 1D 2L — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Club Brugge KV away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Club Brugge KV — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Antwerp, 1 for Club Brugge KV and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Antwerp 0–3 Club Brugge KV — a Club Brugge KV win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Antwerp in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Club Brugge KV in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 72% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 35 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 40% versus Club Brugge KV 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | Club Brugge KV 60%). Note also that Club Brugge KV surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Antwerp recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 41% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 1.52 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.171 / defence 0.824 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.295 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.572 / away 1.175. Club Brugge KV have an above-average attack rating of 1.295, which lifts their away xG to 1.25. Data: built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Club Brugge KV's last 64.
Result probabilities: Antwerp 43% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 31%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.30 | Draw 3.97 | Club Brugge KV 3.18. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Club Brugge KV (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Antwerp's last 10 home games and Club Brugge KV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Antwerp 50% (last 10 home games) | Club Brugge KV 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 May 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 43% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Antwerp 1.52 / Club Brugge KV 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.171 / def 0.824 | Club Brugge KV attack 1.295 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.572 / away 1.175 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Club Brugge KV xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV FAQs
What time does Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV kick off?
Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Sunday 5 May 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV?
Antwerp 1 - 2 Club Brugge KV.
Where is Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV part of?
Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (Championship Round - 7) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 43% chance of winning, Club Brugge KV a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Antwerp and Club Brugge KV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Antwerp's attack at 1.17x the league average against Club Brugge KV's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge KV's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Antwerp's last 64 games and Club Brugge KV's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
43%
2.30
25%
3.97
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Antwerp xG
Total xG
2.77
1.25
Club Brugge KV xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Club Brugge KV expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.25 for Club Brugge KV, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 76 outings, Antwerp have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 40W 18D 18L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Club Brugge KV's form line: 37W 21D 18L from 76 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Antwerp on 1.82 PPG, Club Brugge KV on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Antwerp have posted 2.16 PPG from their last 37 home games (24W 8D 5L).
On the road, Club Brugge KV have gone 15W 9D 13L from their last 37 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Antwerp are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge KV are on 1.96 scored and 1.05 conceded. Club Brugge KV's attacking output running into Antwerp's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Club Brugge KV in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Current Season
Club Brugge KV
Current Season
Antwerp (Home) vs Club Brugge KV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Antwerp
Current Season
Club Brugge KV
Current Season
❓ Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV Form FAQs
What form are Antwerp and Club Brugge KV in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 40W 18D 18L in their last 76 games (1.82 PPG), while Club Brugge KV have gone 37W 21D 18L in their last 76 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Club Brugge KV away?
Antwerp's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.16 PPG; Club Brugge KV away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Club Brugge KV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Club Brugge KV in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2024, when Club Brugge KV won Club Brugge KV 3-0 Antwerp.
Antwerp's record when hosting Club Brugge KV specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Antwerp
1
Draws
6
Club Brugge KV
Recent Meetings
❓ Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Club Brugge KV?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Antwerp have won 3, Club Brugge KV have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Club Brugge KV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Club Brugge KV 3-1 Antwerp.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Club Brugge KV?
Club Brugge KV have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Club Brugge KV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 43%, Club Brugge KV 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Antwerp) and 62% (Club Brugge KV). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Club Brugge KV in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Club Brugge KV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Antwerp vs Club Brugge KV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Antwerp and Club Brugge KV matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Antwerp's recent matches and 54% of Club Brugge KV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Antwerp and Club Brugge KV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Antwerp's matches and 62% of Club Brugge KV's.
Do Antwerp and Club Brugge KV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Antwerp's recent matches and 76% of Club Brugge KV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Club Brugge KV defy the odds to beat Antwerp 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Club Brugge KV beat Antwerp 1-2 at Bosuilstadion, Championship Round - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 1.52 xG and Club Brugge KV 1.25 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Club Brugge KV attack 1.29 / defence 0.82, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 43% | Draw 25% | Club Brugge KV 31%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Club Brugge KV win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, Club Brugge KV 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Club Brugge KV's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.82 PPG, Club Brugge KV 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Club Brugge KV win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.