Antwerp 3-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antwerp and Charleroi meet at Bosuilstadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 January 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Antwerp (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's home record at Bosuilstadion: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Antwerp have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Antwerp — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 65% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 55% | Charleroi 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.02 xG and Charleroi 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.306 / defence 1.054 | Charleroi attack 1.166 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.556. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — their λ of 2.02 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Charleroi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Antwerp games / 21 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 38%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 2.38 | Draw 4.76 | Charleroi 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antwerp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | Charleroi 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jan 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 42% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 74% | xG Antwerp 2.02 / Charleroi 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.306 / def 1.054 | Charleroi attack 1.166 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.556 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Charleroi xG
74%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs Charleroi kick off?
Antwerp vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 January 2022 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Antwerp 3 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Antwerp vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs Charleroi part of?
Antwerp vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 42% chance of winning, Charleroi a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Antwerp and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in?
Antwerp (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.31x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.17x) against Antwerp's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.91.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
42%
2.41
21%
4.79
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.93
1.91
Charleroi xG
2.41
42%
Home win
4.79
21%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.83
Clean Sheet
15%
6.77
13%
7.51
Win to Nil
6%
16.29
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Antwerp and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.91 for Charleroi, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antwerp's recent record stands at 11W 4D 5L from 20 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 9W 5D 6L across 20 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.85 PPG for Antwerp against 1.60 for Charleroi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 6W 2D 2L from 10 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 3D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Antwerp are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.75 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Antwerp have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 11W 4D 5L in their last 20 games (1.85 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 9W 5D 6L in their last 20 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or Charleroi away?
Antwerp's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.00 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Antwerp or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Charleroi in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Charleroi have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Antwerp won 4-1 on 21 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Antwerp have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Charleroi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Antwerp
1
Draws
7
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 2, Charleroi have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Antwerp 0-1 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antwerp see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for Antwerp, 70% for Charleroi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Antwerp and 90% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 70% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Antwerp's games and 70% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Antwerp vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Antwerp's matches and 90% of Charleroi's.
Do Antwerp and Charleroi tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat Charleroi 3-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.02 xG and Charleroi 1.91 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Antwerp beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charleroi landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.31 / defence 1.05 against Charleroi attack 1.17 / defence 1.29, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 42% | Draw 21% | Charleroi 38%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 55%, Charleroi 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antwerp 1.85 PPG, Charleroi 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antwerp win broke the near-deadlock. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.