Anderlecht 4-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Anderlecht at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Anderlecht vs AS Eupen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Anderlecht host AS Eupen at Lotto Park in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's home record at Lotto Park: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Eupen — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Eupen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Eupen's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Anderlecht are in the better shape of the two on current Jupiler Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Anderlecht, 0 for AS Eupen and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Anderlecht in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Anderlecht 60% versus AS Eupen 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 52% | AS Eupen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 1.113 / defence 1.117 | AS Eupen attack 0.635 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.502. AS Eupen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Anderlecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Anderlecht games / 25 AS Eupen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 24%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 1.96 | Draw 4.00 | AS Eupen 4.17. Anderlecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Anderlecht as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 80% | AS Eupen 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs AS Eupen | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 51% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Anderlecht 1.66 / AS Eupen 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 1.113 / def 1.117 | AS Eupen attack 0.635 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
1.06
AS Eupen xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs AS Eupen kick off?
Anderlecht vs AS Eupen kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Anderlecht 4 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Anderlecht vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs AS Eupen part of?
Anderlecht vs AS Eupen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 51% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Anderlecht and AS Eupen will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and AS Eupen?
Record (1 meetings): Anderlecht 0W | Draws 1 | AS Eupen 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and AS Eupen in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. AS Eupen (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Anderlecht's attack at 1.11x the league average against AS Eupen's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AS Eupen's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
51%
1.96
25%
4.05
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.72
1.06
AS Eupen xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
5%
21.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Anderlecht and 1.06 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht's recent record stands at 11W 9D 5L from 25 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 12L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for AS Eupen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Anderlecht by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Anderlecht have managed 5W 5D 2L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 4W 2D 6L across 12 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 1.24 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
AS Eupen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 11W 9D 5L in their last 25 games (1.68 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or AS Eupen away?
Anderlecht's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 1.67 PPG; AS Eupen away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and AS Eupen runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Anderlecht go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Anderlecht won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting AS Eupen specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Anderlecht
1
Draws
0
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and AS Eupen?
From 6 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 5, AS Eupen have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and AS Eupen last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Anderlecht 1-0 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and AS Eupen?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 75%, AS Eupen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Anderlecht) and 58% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: AS Eupen in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play AS Eupen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Anderlecht's games and 50% of AS Eupen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Anderlecht vs AS Eupen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Anderlecht's recent games and 58% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and AS Eupen tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, AS Eupen in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 4-1 hammering of AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat AS Eupen 4-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.66 xG and AS Eupen 1.06 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against AS Eupen attack 0.64 / defence 1.35, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 51% | Draw 25% | AS Eupen 24%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 52%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Anderlecht arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.