Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 76% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zulte Waregem host Lommel United at Elindus Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Zulte Waregem have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zulte Waregem's home record over their last 10 home games: 9W 1D 0L (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Zulte Waregem are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lommel United — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly.
Lommel United's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Zulte Waregem carry the stronger recent momentum — 2.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Zulte Waregem's games and 60% of Lommel United's (from Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Zulte Waregem 2–1 Lommel United — a Zulte Waregem win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Zulte Waregem trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lommel United trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 62% and Lommel United 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 60% | Lommel United 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 3.16 xG and Lommel United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.533 / defence 0.977 | Lommel United attack 0.907 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.370. Zulte Waregem carry an above-average attack rating of 1.533 — their 3.16 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lommel United's defence rating of 1.471 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Zulte Waregem's projected output up. Data: built from Zulte Waregem's last 53 games and Lommel United's last 53.
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 76% | Draw 13% | Lommel United 11%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.32 | Draw 7.51 | Lommel United 9.00. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (76%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 4.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (3.16 / 1.21) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.37 combined xG gives a 81% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Zulte Waregem's last 10 home games and Lommel United's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Zulte Waregem 80% (last 10 home games) | Lommel United 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 25 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 76% | Draw 13% | Lommel United 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 81% (Under 19%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG Zulte Waregem 3.16 / Lommel United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.533 / def 0.977 | Lommel United attack 0.907 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.16
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lommel United xG
67%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
64%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United FAQs
What time does Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Zulte Waregem 0 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United part of?
Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 25) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 76% chance of winning, Lommel United a 11% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Zulte Waregem and Lommel United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 81%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Zulte Waregem's attacking strength (1.53x league average) is weighed against Lommel United's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.16. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Zulte Waregem's last 53 games and Lommel United's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-1, at 8.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 3-0 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
76%
1.32
13%
7.51
11%
9.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
3 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.16
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
4.37
1.21
Lommel United xG
1.32
76%
Home win
7.51
13%
Draw
9.00
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
81%
Over 2.5
1.23
19%
Under 2.5
5.26
64%
Over 3.5
1.56
36%
Under 3.5
2.78
44%
Over 4.5
2.27
56%
Under 4.5
1.79
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.06
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
4%
23.57
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.0 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 3.16 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.21 for Lommel United, a combined total of 4.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Zulte Waregem have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 30W 12D 13L record — W-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Lommel United's form line: 18W 15D 22L from 55 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lommel United.
Venue Form
On home soil, Zulte Waregem have posted 1.67 PPG from their last 27 home games (13W 6D 8L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 9W 6D 12L from their last 27 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lommel United in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
Zulte Waregem (Home) vs Lommel United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Zulte Waregem
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United Form FAQs
What form are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 30W 12D 13L in their last 55 games (1.85 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 18W 15D 22L in their last 55 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or Lommel United away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.67 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won Zulte Waregem 0-3 Lommel United.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Zulte Waregem
2
Draws
3
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Zulte Waregem have won 1, Lommel United have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and Lommel United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2025: Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zulte Waregem at 63%, Lommel United at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Zulte Waregem and 78% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Zulte Waregem vs Lommel United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Zulte Waregem and Lommel United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Zulte Waregem's games and 70% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Zulte Waregem and Lommel United matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 78% of Lommel United's.
Do Zulte Waregem and Lommel United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Zulte Waregem's recent matches and 85% of Lommel United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat Zulte Waregem 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat Zulte Waregem 0-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 3.16 xG and Lommel United 1.21 xG, a combined 4.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zulte Waregem fell 3.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.53 / defence 0.98 against Lommel United attack 0.91 / defence 1.47, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 76% | Draw 13% | Lommel United 11%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a Lommel United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 81%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 64% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 60%, Lommel United 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Lommel United winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.