Standard Liège II 1-0 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Standard Liège II vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Standard Liège II and Lommel United meet at Stade Maurice Dufrasne in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 February 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Standard Liège II at Stade Maurice Dufrasne this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lommel United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Lommel United arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Standard Liège II 1W, Lommel United 1W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2022, ended 0–3 with Lommel United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Lommel United half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 64% versus Lommel United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Standard Liège II 68% | Lommel United 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.23 xG and Lommel United 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.779 / defence 1.294 | Lommel United attack 1.062 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.452. Standard Liège II's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Standard Liège II games / 50 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 23% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 55%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 4.35 | Draw 4.55 | Lommel United 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Lommel United (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.23 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 80% | Lommel United 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Friday 24 Feb 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 23% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 61% | xG Standard Liège II 1.23 / Lommel United 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.779 / def 1.294 | Lommel United attack 1.062 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Lommel United xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Lommel United kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Lommel United kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 February 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Standard Liège II 1 - 0 Lommel United.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United part of?
Standard Liège II vs Lommel United is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 23% chance of winning, Lommel United a 55% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Standard Liège II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
Record (2 meetings): Standard Liège II 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 1W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Lommel United in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.78) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.06x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
23%
4.29
22%
4.63
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
3.23
2.00
Lommel United xG
4.29
23%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
3%
31.63
16%
6.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 2.00 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Standard Liège II come into this having played 22 games, going 4W 7D 11L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-D. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lommel United sit at 1.45 PPG from 22 outings (10W 2D 10L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Standard Liège II's home form reads 1W 5D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Lommel United have taken 1.73 points per game from 11 outings (6W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Standard Liège II are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.50 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 4W 7D 11L in their last 22 games (0.86 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 10W 2D 10L in their last 22 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.73 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lommel United have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 6-1 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
4
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 2, Lommel United have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2024, when Standard Liège II 0-4 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Standard Liège II 82%, Lommel United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Standard Liège II and 82% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Standard Liège II's games and 46% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Standard Liège II's matches and 82% of Lommel United's.
Do Standard Liège II and Lommel United tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Standard Liège II defy the odds to beat Lommel United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II beat Lommel United 1-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Relegation Round - 1, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.23 xG and Lommel United 2.00 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lommel United landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.78 / defence 1.29 against Lommel United attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 23% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 55%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Standard Liège II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 68%, Lommel United 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Standard Liège II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.18 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.