Standard Liège II 3-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Cité de l'Oie plays host to Standard Liège II versus KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 10 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Standard Liège II have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Standard Liège II are significantly better at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie than their overall form suggests.
KRC Genk II have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Standard Liège II, 0.80 for KRC Genk II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Standard Liège II 0W, KRC Genk II 0W, 4D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
KRC Genk II half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 55% versus KRC Genk II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 57% | KRC Genk II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.39 xG and KRC Genk II 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.960 / defence 0.985 | KRC Genk II attack 1.349 / defence 1.242. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.357. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.242 — this is suppressing Standard Liège II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. KRC Genk II have an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Standard Liège II games / 33 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 30% | Draw 23% | KRC Genk II 47%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | KRC Genk II 2.13. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.19 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 50% | KRC Genk II 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stade de la Cité de l'Oie • Kick-off: Friday 10 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 30% | Draw 23% | KRC Genk II 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Standard Liège II 1.39 / KRC Genk II 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.960 / def 0.985 | KRC Genk II attack 1.349 / def 1.242 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.80
KRC Genk II xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 November 2023 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Standard Liège II 3 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II part of?
Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 30% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II?
Record (4 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 4 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Standard Liège II's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.35x) against Standard Liège II's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 32/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
30%
3.36
23%
4.36
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
3.19
1.80
KRC Genk II xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
5%
20.39
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.80 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Standard Liège II have picked up 0.79 PPG on a 7W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II's form line: 8W 10D 24L from 42 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.79 PPG for Standard Liège II against 0.81 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Standard Liège II have posted 1.00 PPG from 20 outings (4W 8D 8L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liège II are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.24 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 7W 12D 23L in their last 42 games (0.79 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 8W 10D 24L in their last 42 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or KRC Genk II away?
Standard Liège II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.00 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Standard Liège II
4
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when KRC Genk II 1-0 Standard Liège II.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for Standard Liège II, 65% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Standard Liège II and 60% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Standard Liège II's games and 65% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Standard Liège II's matches and 60% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Standard Liège II cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II beat KRC Genk II 3-1 at Stade de la Cité de l'Oie, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.39 xG and KRC Genk II 1.80 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Standard Liège II beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against KRC Genk II attack 1.35 / defence 1.24, drawn from 32/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 30% | Draw 23% | KRC Genk II 47%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Standard Liège II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 57%, KRC Genk II 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 0.79 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Standard Liège II win broke the near-deadlock. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.