Standard Liège II 0-0 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Maurice Dufrasne plays host to Standard Liège II versus KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Standard Liège II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liège II have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Standard Liège II, 1.00 for KRC Genk II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Standard Liège II 0W, KRC Genk II 0W, 3D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Standard Liège II half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
KRC Genk II half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 61% versus KRC Genk II 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 61% | KRC Genk II 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.40 xG and KRC Genk II 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.804 / defence 1.263 | KRC Genk II attack 0.795 / defence 1.214. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.453. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.214 — this is suppressing Standard Liège II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Standard Liège II games / 22 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 39%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | KRC Genk II 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Standard Liège II 70% | KRC Genk II 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Standard Liège II 1.40 / KRC Genk II 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.804 / def 1.263 | KRC Genk II attack 0.795 / def 1.214 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.46
KRC Genk II xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Standard Liège II 0 - 0 KRC Genk II.
Where is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II part of?
Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 36% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 3 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Standard Liège II's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.80x) against Standard Liège II's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
36%
2.77
25%
4.00
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.85
1.46
KRC Genk II xG
2.77
36%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
10%
10.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.46 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Standard Liège II have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 9D 14L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
KRC Genk II's form line: 6W 7D 15L from 28 games, 0.89 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Standard Liège II against 0.89 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Standard Liège II have posted 0.86 PPG from 14 outings (2W 6D 6L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 3W 2D 9L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Standard Liège II are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.18 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Current Season
KRC Genk II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 5W 9D 14L in their last 28 games (0.86 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 6W 7D 15L in their last 28 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or KRC Genk II away?
Standard Liège II's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 0.86 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Standard Liège II
4
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when KRC Genk II 1-0 Standard Liège II.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 79% for Standard Liège II, 57% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Standard Liège II and 57% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Standard Liège II's games and 57% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Standard Liège II's matches and 57% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Standard Liège II's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II and KRC Genk II finished level at 0-0 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Relegation Round - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.40 xG and KRC Genk II 1.46 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Standard Liège II fell 1.4 short of their projected output. KRC Genk II landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against KRC Genk II attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 39%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 61%, KRC Genk II 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 0.86 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Standard Liège II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.