Patro Eisden 3-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II meet at Patrostadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Patro Eisden (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Patro Eisden have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
RSC Anderlecht II's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, RSC Anderlecht II have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Patro Eisden. A 0.60 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Patro Eisden, 0 for RSC Anderlecht II and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Feb 2024, ended Patro Eisden 0–0 RSC Anderlecht II — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Patro Eisden — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 39% versus RSC Anderlecht II 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 52% | RSC Anderlecht II 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.49 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 1.141 / defence 0.966 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.948 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.251 / away 1.444. Data: built from Patro Eisden's last 31 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.43 | Draw 3.98 | RSC Anderlecht II 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Patro Eisden's last 10 home games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Patro Eisden 40% (last 10 home games) | RSC Anderlecht II 60% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Patro Eisden 31 games, RSC Anderlecht II 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 2 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Patro Eisden 1.49 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 1.141 / def 0.966 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.948 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.251 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.32
RSC Anderlecht II xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II FAQs
What time does Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Patro Eisden 3 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 2) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 41% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Patro Eisden's attack at 1.14x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.95x) against Patro Eisden's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from Patro Eisden's last 31 games and RSC Anderlecht II's last 31, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
41%
2.43
25%
3.98
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.81
1.32
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
23%
4.43
Win to Nil
11%
9.10
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.32 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Patro Eisden's recent record stands at 13W 10D 8L from 31 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 13L across 31 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Patro Eisden by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RSC Anderlecht II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Patro Eisden have managed 7W 3D 5L from their last 15 home games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 6W 4D 5L across their last 15 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.29 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II in 68%.
Defensively: Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Early Season
RSC Anderlecht II
Early Season
Patro Eisden (Home) vs RSC Anderlecht II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Patro Eisden
Early Season
RSC Anderlecht II
Early Season
❓ Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II Form FAQs
What form are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 games (1.58 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.60 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Patro Eisden
4
Draws
0
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Patro Eisden have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Patro Eisden 2-1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 47%, RSC Anderlecht II 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Patro Eisden and 47% for RSC Anderlecht II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Patro Eisden vs RSC Anderlecht II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 60% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Patro Eisden's matches and 47% of RSC Anderlecht II's.
Do Patro Eisden and RSC Anderlecht II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Patro Eisden's recent matches and 67% of RSC Anderlecht II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Patro Eisden cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over RSC Anderlecht II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat RSC Anderlecht II 3-1 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.49 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.32 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 41% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 34%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 52%, RSC Anderlecht II 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.