Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 34 as Patro Eisden welcome Francs Borains to Patrostadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Patro Eisden — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Patro Eisden's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Patrostadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Patro Eisden are significantly better at Patrostadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Francs Borains's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Patro Eisden) versus 1.20 (Francs Borains). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Patro Eisden, 1 for Francs Borains and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Patro Eisden in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Patro Eisden 57% versus Francs Borains 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Patro Eisden 50% | Francs Borains 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Patro Eisden attack 0.895 / defence 1.201 | Francs Borains attack 0.855 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.397. Data: 60 Patro Eisden games / 60 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 37%. Fair-value odds: Patro Eisden 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Francs Borains 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Patro Eisden 40% | Francs Borains 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Patrostadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Patro Eisden 1.45 / Francs Borains 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Patro Eisden attack 0.895 / def 1.201 | Francs Borains attack 0.855 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Francs Borains xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kick off?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Patrostadion.
What was the final score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden 4 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Patrostadion.
What competition is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains part of?
Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Patro Eisden a 38% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Patro Eisden and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Record (5 meetings): Patro Eisden 3W | Draws 1 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in?
Patro Eisden (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Patro Eisden's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Patro Eisden's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
38%
2.64
25%
4.02
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Patro Eisden xG
Total xG
2.88
1.43
Francs Borains xG
2.64
38%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.06
9%
11.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.0 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Patro Eisden and 1.43 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Patro Eisden come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 17D 16L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.10 PPG from 60 outings (18W 12D 30L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Patro Eisden's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (9W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Patro Eisden are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.08 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Patro Eisden
Current Season
Francs Borains
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Patro Eisden and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Patro Eisden have gone 27W 17D 16L in their last 60 games (1.63 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 18W 12D 30L in their last 60 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Patro Eisden at home or Francs Borains away?
Patro Eisden's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Patro Eisden at home: 1.67 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Patro Eisden or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Patro Eisden have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2026, when Patro Eisden won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Patro Eisden's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Patro Eisden
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, Patro Eisden have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Patro Eisden and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Patro Eisden 4-0 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Patro Eisden and Francs Borains?
Patro Eisden have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Patro Eisden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Patro Eisden 60%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Patro Eisden) and 57% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Patro Eisden home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Patro Eisden play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Patro Eisden's games and 50% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Patro Eisden vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Patro Eisden's matches and 57% of Francs Borains's.
Do Patro Eisden and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Patro Eisden have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Patro Eisden run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Patro Eisden beat Francs Borains 4-0 at Patrostadion, Regular Season - 34, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Patro Eisden 1.45 xG and Francs Borains 1.43 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Patro Eisden beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Patro Eisden attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Patro Eisden 38% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 37%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Patro Eisden 50%, Francs Borains 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Patro Eisden's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Francs Borains's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.