Oostende 0-0 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oostende vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oostende and Patro Eisden meet at Diaz Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Oostende (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Oostende, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Oostende have posted 1W 3D 6L at Diaz Arena — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Patro Eisden have collected 1.67 PPG across 9 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Patro Eisden have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Patro Eisden arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Oostende goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Oostende 56% and Patro Eisden 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oostende 22% | Patro Eisden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oostende 0.97 xG and Patro Eisden 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oostende attack 0.857 / defence 1.152 | Patro Eisden attack 0.857 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.369. Data: 9 Oostende games / 9 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oostende 27% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45%. Fair-value odds: Oostende 3.70 | Draw 3.57 | Patro Eisden 2.22. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Patro Eisden are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Oostende 50% | Patro Eisden 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oostende vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Diaz Arena • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oostende 27% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Oostende 0.97 / Patro Eisden 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Oostende attack 0.857 / def 1.152 | Patro Eisden attack 0.857 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Oostende xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Patro Eisden xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oostende vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Oostende vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Diaz Arena.
What was the final score in Oostende vs Patro Eisden?
Oostende 0 - 0 Patro Eisden.
Where is Oostende vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Diaz Arena.
What competition is Oostende vs Patro Eisden part of?
Oostende vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Oostende vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Oostende a 27% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oostende vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oostende and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Oostende vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Patro Eisden?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oostende and Patro Eisden in?
Oostende (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Patro Eisden (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Oostende's attack rating (0.86) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (0.86x) against Oostende's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.5%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
27%
3.71
28%
3.63
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Oostende xG
Total xG
2.33
1.35
Patro Eisden xG
3.71
27%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.33
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.2 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oostende vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Oostende and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Oostende and 1.35 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Oostende vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Oostende come into this having played 9 games, going 1W 4D 4L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Oostende is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Oostende — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Oostende's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Patro Eisden come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Oostende are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.44 scored and 1.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Patro Eisden in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oostende
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oostende and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Oostende have gone 1W 4D 4L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oostende at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oostende at home: 0.50 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Oostende
1
Draws
0
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oostende and Patro Eisden?
From 2 meetings on record, Oostende have won 1, Patro Eisden have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oostende and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2024, when Patro Eisden 2-3 Oostende.
Who has won more matches between Oostende and Patro Eisden?
Oostende have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Oostende are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oostende 75%, Patro Eisden 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Oostende) and 50% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oostende home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oostende play Patro Eisden?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Oostende's games and 50% of Patro Eisden's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oostende vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Oostende's recent games and 50% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oostende and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Oostende have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Oostende's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oostende and Patro Eisden finished level at 0-0 at Diaz Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oostende 0.97 xG and Patro Eisden 1.35 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Oostende fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oostende attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Patro Eisden attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oostende 27% | Draw 28% | Patro Eisden 45%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oostende 22%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oostende's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Patro Eisden arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Oostende (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.