Lommel United 2-1 RWDM – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RWDM at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs RWDM fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees RWDM travel to Soevereinstadion to take on Lommel United. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lommel United stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Lommel United have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lommel United's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Soevereinstadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Soevereinstadion this season.
RWDM — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. RWDM have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, RWDM have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Lommel United have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lommel United, 2 for RWDM and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lommel United trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
RWDM trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 53% versus RWDM 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 56% | RWDM 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 0.81 xG and RWDM 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.673 / defence 0.979 | RWDM attack 0.854 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.654. Lommel United's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Lommel United games / 34 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 22% | Draw 28% | RWDM 50%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | RWDM 2.00. RWDM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RWDM as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lommel United (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RWDM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Lommel United 30% | RWDM 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Soevereinstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 22% | Draw 28% | RWDM 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Lommel United 0.81 / RWDM 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.673 / def 0.979 | RWDM attack 0.854 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.654 • Poisson stance: RWDM (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.38
RWDM xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs RWDM kick off?
Lommel United vs RWDM kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Soevereinstadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs RWDM?
Lommel United 2 - 1 RWDM.
Where is Lommel United vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Soevereinstadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs RWDM part of?
Lommel United vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 22% chance of winning, RWDM a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lommel United and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and RWDM?
Record (4 meetings): Lommel United 1W | Draws 1 | RWDM 2W.
What form are Lommel United and RWDM in?
Lommel United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. RWDM (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lommel United's attack at 0.67x the league average against RWDM's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
22%
4.61
28%
3.51
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.20
1.38
RWDM xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
5%
18.40
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lommel United and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.38 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 12W 8D 14L from 34 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lommel United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
RWDM, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 9L across 34 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for RWDM, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lommel United on 1.29 PPG, RWDM on 1.62. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 5W 4D 8L from 17 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RWDM's away record stands at 8W 5D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 1.35 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: RWDM in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
RWDM
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and RWDM in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while RWDM have gone 15W 10D 9L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.12 PPG; RWDM away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Lommel United or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, RWDM in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and RWDM runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when RWDM won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lommel United
2
Draws
4
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and RWDM?
From 10 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 4, RWDM have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Lommel United 3-2 RWDM.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 47%, RWDM 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lommel United) and 47% (RWDM).
On the defensive side: RWDM in 35%; Lommel United have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play RWDM?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lommel United's recent matches and 53% of RWDM's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lommel United vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lommel United's recent games and 47% of RWDM's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and RWDM tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, RWDM in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lommel United defy the odds to beat RWDM 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United beat RWDM 2-1 at Soevereinstadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 0.81 xG and RWDM 1.38 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Lommel United beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.67 / defence 0.98 against RWDM attack 0.85 / defence 1.00, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 22% | Draw 28% | RWDM 50%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Lommel United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 56%, RWDM 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
RWDM's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lommel United 1.29 PPG, RWDM 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lommel United win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.