Lommel United 1-1 AS Eupen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lommel United at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lommel United face AS Eupen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AS Eupen make the trip to Soeverein Stadion to face Lommel United in Challenger Pro League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lommel United have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lommel United's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Eupen's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
AS Eupen away from home: 2W 0D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Lommel United against 1.30 for AS Eupen. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Lommel United — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
AS Eupen — key trading statistics (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 60% versus AS Eupen 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | AS Eupen 56%). Note also that AS Eupen surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Lommel United recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.50 xG and AS Eupen 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 0.926 / defence 0.967 | AS Eupen attack 0.923 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.327. Data: built from Lommel United's last 37 games and AS Eupen's last 7.
Result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 29%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 2.28 | Draw 3.75 | AS Eupen 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lommel United are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lommel United 60% (last 10 home games) | AS Eupen 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs AS Eupen | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 October 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 44% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Lommel United 1.50 / AS Eupen 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 0.926 / def 0.967 | AS Eupen attack 0.923 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.18
AS Eupen xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lommel United vs AS Eupen FAQs
What time does Lommel United vs AS Eupen kick off?
Lommel United vs AS Eupen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs AS Eupen?
Lommel United 1 - 1 AS Eupen.
Where is Lommel United vs AS Eupen being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs AS Eupen part of?
Lommel United vs AS Eupen is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs AS Eupen?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 44% chance of winning, AS Eupen a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs AS Eupen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lommel United and AS Eupen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lommel United vs AS Eupen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Lommel United's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AS Eupen's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — AS Eupen's attack (0.92x) against Lommel United's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from Lommel United's last 37 games and AS Eupen's last 7 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.75
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.68
1.18
AS Eupen xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
15.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lommel United vs AS Eupen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs AS Eupen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lommel United and AS Eupen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.18 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs AS Eupen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lommel United's recent record stands at 20W 11D 12L from 43 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
AS Eupen, meanwhile, have gone 11W 5D 27L across 43 games — 0.88 PPG, with L-L-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 11W 5D 5L from their last 21 home games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Eupen's away record stands at 4W 1D 16L across their last 21 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lommel United are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; AS Eupen are on 0.95 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Early Season
AS Eupen
Early Season
Lommel United (Home) vs AS Eupen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lommel United
Early Season
AS Eupen
Early Season
❓ Lommel United vs AS Eupen Form FAQs
What form are Lommel United and AS Eupen in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 20W 11D 12L in their last 43 games (1.65 PPG), while AS Eupen have gone 11W 5D 27L in their last 43 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or AS Eupen away?
Lommel United's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.81 PPG; AS Eupen away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Lommel United have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lommel United have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against AS Eupen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Lommel United
1
Draws
1
AS Eupen
Recent Meetings
❓ Lommel United vs AS Eupen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and AS Eupen?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Lommel United have won 2, AS Eupen have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lommel United and AS Eupen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Lommel United 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and AS Eupen?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 43%, AS Eupen 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lommel United) and 57% (AS Eupen).
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AS Eupen in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / AS Eupen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lommel United vs AS Eupen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lommel United and AS Eupen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Lommel United's recent matches and 38% of AS Eupen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lommel United and AS Eupen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lommel United's recent games and 57% of AS Eupen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lommel United and AS Eupen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Lommel United's recent matches and 71% of AS Eupen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and AS Eupen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as Lommel United and AS Eupen drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.50 xG and AS Eupen 1.18 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against AS Eupen attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 44% | Draw 27% | AS Eupen 29%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, AS Eupen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
AS Eupen's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Eupen (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.