Lokeren-Temse 0-1 RSC Anderlecht II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II meet at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lokeren-Temse's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 2L across 5 games at Daknamstadion this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
RSC Anderlecht II have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Lokeren-Temse. A 0.50 PPG lead over RSC Anderlecht II (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Lokeren-Temse half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 54% of games.
RSC Anderlecht II half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 27% of cases; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 18% versus RSC Anderlecht II 91%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 36% | RSC Anderlecht II 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 1.54 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.927 / defence 0.871 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.953 / defence 1.203. League average goals — home 1.383 / away 1.446. RSC Anderlecht II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.203 — this is suppressing Lokeren-Temse's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Lokeren-Temse games / 41 RSC Anderlecht II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 30%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | RSC Anderlecht II 3.33. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lokeren-Temse 20% | RSC Anderlecht II 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Lokeren-Temse 1.54 / RSC Anderlecht II 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.927 / def 0.871 | RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.953 / def 1.203 | league avg home 1.383 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (45%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.20
RSC Anderlecht II xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Lokeren-Temse 0 - 1 RSC Anderlecht II.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 45% chance of winning, RSC Anderlecht II a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II will score (BTTS).
Will Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II in?
Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lokeren-Temse's attack at 0.93x the league average against RSC Anderlecht II's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — RSC Anderlecht II's attack (0.95x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 11/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
45%
2.21
25%
3.98
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.74
1.20
RSC Anderlecht II xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
6%
15.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.20 for RSC Anderlecht II, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lokeren-Temse's recent record stands at 3W 3D 5L from 11 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RSC Anderlecht II, meanwhile, have gone 1W 4D 6L across 11 games — 0.64 PPG, with L-W-D-D-D in their last five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lokeren-Temse by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over RSC Anderlecht II heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Lokeren-Temse have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RSC Anderlecht II's away record stands at 0W 3D 2L across 5 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; RSC Anderlecht II are on 1.45 scored and 2.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games; RSC Anderlecht II in 91%.
Defensively: Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while RSC Anderlecht II have gone 1W 4D 6L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lokeren-Temse at home or RSC Anderlecht II away?
Lokeren-Temse's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lokeren-Temse at home: 1.00 PPG; RSC Anderlecht II away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Lokeren-Temse or RSC Anderlecht II been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, RSC Anderlecht II in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Lokeren-Temse have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lokeren-Temse have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against RSC Anderlecht II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Lokeren-Temse
0
Draws
1
RSC Anderlecht II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II?
From 4 meetings on record, Lokeren-Temse have won 3, RSC Anderlecht II have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Lokeren-Temse 4-2 RSC Anderlecht II.
Who has won more matches between Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II?
Lokeren-Temse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 20%, RSC Anderlecht II 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lokeren-Temse) and 60% (RSC Anderlecht II).
On the defensive side: Lokeren-Temse keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / RSC Anderlecht II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lokeren-Temse play RSC Anderlecht II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 80% of RSC Anderlecht II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lokeren-Temse vs RSC Anderlecht II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 60% of RSC Anderlecht II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and RSC Anderlecht II tend to score early?
Lokeren-Temse have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, RSC Anderlecht II in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RSC Anderlecht II defy the odds to beat Lokeren-Temse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat Lokeren-Temse 0-1 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 1.54 xG and RSC Anderlecht II 1.20 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lokeren-Temse fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against RSC Anderlecht II attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 45% | Draw 25% | RSC Anderlecht II 30%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual RSC Anderlecht II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 36%, RSC Anderlecht II 82%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 18% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 91% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lokeren-Temse arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with RSC Anderlecht II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.