Liège 0-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Liège at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Liège face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Francs Borains travel to Stade de Rocourt to take on Liège in Challenger Pro League (matchday 21). The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Liège stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Liège have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Francs Borains — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Francs Borains's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Liège 1.60 PPG, Francs Borains 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Liège, 0 for Francs Borains and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2024, ended Liège 2–1 Francs Borains — a Liège win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Liège in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Liège 56% versus Francs Borains 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Liège 58% | Francs Borains 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Liège 1.47 xG and Francs Borains 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Liège attack 1.013 / defence 0.869 | Francs Borains attack 0.973 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.375. Data: built from Liège's last 50 games and Francs Borains's last 50.
Result probabilities: Liège 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 29%. Fair-value odds: Liège 2.30 | Draw 3.66 | Francs Borains 3.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Liège are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Liège offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Liège 60% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Liège vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade de Rocourt • Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Liège 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Liège 1.47 / Francs Borains 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Liège attack 1.013 / def 0.869 | Francs Borains attack 0.973 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Liège (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Liège xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Francs Borains xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Liège vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does Liège vs Francs Borains kick off?
Liège vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stade de Rocourt.
What was the final score in Liège vs Francs Borains?
Liège 0 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is Liège vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Rocourt.
What competition is Liège vs Francs Borains part of?
Liège vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 21) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Liège vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Liège a 43% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Liège the favourite.
Will both teams score in Liège vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Liège and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Liège vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Liège's attack at 1.01x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Liège's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Liège's last 50 games and Francs Borains's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Liège Win
43%
2.30
27%
3.66
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Liège xG
Total xG
2.63
1.16
Francs Borains xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Liège vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Liège vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Liège and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Liège and 1.16 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Liège vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Liège come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 9D 19L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.08 PPG from 50 outings (15W 9D 26L), a run that reads D-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Liège carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Liège's home form reads 12W 6D 7L across their last 25 home games, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 1.24 points per game from their last 25 away games (9W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Liège come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Liège are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.22 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Liège
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
Liège (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Liège
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Liège vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are Liège and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Liège have gone 22W 9D 19L in their last 50 games (1.50 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 15W 9D 26L in their last 50 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Liège at home or Francs Borains away?
Liège's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Liège at home: 1.68 PPG; Francs Borains away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Liège's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Liège
1
Draws
3
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Liège vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Liège and Francs Borains?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Liège have won 3, Francs Borains have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Liège and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Liège 1-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Liège are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Liège 52%, Francs Borains 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Liège) and 68% (Francs Borains). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Liège home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Liège vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Liège and Francs Borains matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Liège's recent matches and 56% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Liège and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Liège's matches and 68% of Francs Borains's.
Do Liège and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Liège's recent matches and 84% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat Liège 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Liège 0-1 at Stade de Rocourt, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Liège 1.47 xG and Francs Borains 1.16 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Liège fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Liège attack 1.01 / defence 0.87 against Francs Borains attack 0.97 / defence 1.04, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Liège 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 29%, with Liège to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Francs Borains win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Liège 58%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Liège's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Francs Borains's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Liège arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Liège (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.