KRC Genk II 2-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as KRC Genk II welcome Zulte Waregem to De Leunen. Kick-off is set for Friday 29 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Leunen, KRC Genk II have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at De Leunen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 2.50 PPG return is 2.10 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Zulte Waregem in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for KRC Genk II, 1 for Zulte Waregem and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
KRC Genk II trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 67% and Zulte Waregem 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 69% | Zulte Waregem 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.11 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.826 / defence 1.204 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.101 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.426. Data: 42 KRC Genk II games / 42 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 22% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 56%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Friday 29 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 22% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG KRC Genk II 1.11 / Zulte Waregem 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.826 / def 1.204 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.101 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Zulte Waregem xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 November 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
KRC Genk II 2 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem part of?
KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 22% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 1 | Zulte Waregem 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
22%
4.53
22%
4.47
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.00
1.89
Zulte Waregem xG
4.53
22%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
15%
6.63
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
30.00
18%
5.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.4 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.89 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 13W 8D 21L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 22W 9D 11L from 42 games, 1.79 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Zulte Waregem are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.20 PPG from 20 outings (7W 3D 10L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 3D 4L from 20 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.76 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 13W 8D 21L in their last 42 games (1.12 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 22W 9D 11L in their last 42 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.20 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
3
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 65%, Zulte Waregem 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for KRC Genk II and 65% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of KRC Genk II's games and 60% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of KRC Genk II's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do KRC Genk II and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out KRC Genk II 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat KRC Genk II 2-3 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.11 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.89 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Zulte Waregem outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.83 / defence 1.20 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.10 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 22% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 56%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 69%, Zulte Waregem 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.