KRC Genk II 2-0 RWDM – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RWDM at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs RWDM encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KRC Genk II host RWDM at Cegeka Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, KRC Genk II have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II at Cegeka Arena this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — KRC Genk II are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
RWDM — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. RWDM's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for KRC Genk II, 0 for RWDM and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
RWDM in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 64% and RWDM 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 71% | RWDM 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 0.92 xG and RWDM 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.737 / defence 1.175 | RWDM attack 1.007 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.374. KRC Genk II's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 KRC Genk II games / 42 RWDM games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 21% | Draw 26% | RWDM 53%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | RWDM 1.89. RWDM hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RWDM at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RWDM offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 43% | RWDM 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs RWDM | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 25 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 21% | Draw 26% | RWDM 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG KRC Genk II 0.92 / RWDM 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.737 / def 1.175 | RWDM attack 1.007 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: RWDM (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.63
RWDM xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs RWDM kick off?
KRC Genk II vs RWDM kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 November 2022 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
KRC Genk II 2 - 0 RWDM.
Where is KRC Genk II vs RWDM being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs RWDM part of?
KRC Genk II vs RWDM is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 21% chance of winning, RWDM a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RWDM the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both KRC Genk II and RWDM will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs RWDM have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
Record (1 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 1 | RWDM 0W.
What form are KRC Genk II and RWDM in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. RWDM (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.74x the league average against RWDM's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RWDM's attack versus KRC Genk II's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RWDM Win
21%
4.78
26%
3.89
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
2.55
1.63
RWDM xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
4%
24.30
21%
4.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.7 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and RWDM expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.63 for RWDM, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs RWDM?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 14 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 0.64 PPG on a 2W 3D 9L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RWDM's form line: 8W 4D 2L from 14 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RWDM are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, RWDM have gone 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RWDM's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RWDM come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; RWDM are on 2.00 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; RWDM in 64%.
Defensively: RWDM in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
RWDM
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and RWDM in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 2W 3D 9L in their last 14 games (0.64 PPG), while RWDM have gone 8W 4D 2L in their last 14 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or RWDM away?
RWDM's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.00 PPG; RWDM away: 1.57 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or RWDM been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, RWDM in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when RWDM won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KRC Genk II's record when hosting RWDM specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
2
Draws
3
RWDM
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, RWDM have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and RWDM last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 RWDM.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and RWDM?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KRC Genk II see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
RWDM see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 43%, RWDM 86% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (KRC Genk II) and 57% (RWDM). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 57% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / RWDM away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play RWDM?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of KRC Genk II's games and 86% of RWDM's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs RWDM usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of KRC Genk II's matches and 57% of RWDM's.
KRC Genk II cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RWDM.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat RWDM 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 0.92 xG and RWDM 1.63 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. KRC Genk II beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. RWDM landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against RWDM attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 14/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 21% | Draw 26% | RWDM 53%, with RWDM to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a KRC Genk II win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 71%, RWDM 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
RWDM's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RWDM arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.64. Form was overturned, with KRC Genk II winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. RWDM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.