KRC Genk II 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lommel United at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KRC Genk II and Lommel United meet at De Leunen in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, KRC Genk II have posted 3W 1D 6L at De Leunen — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Leunen this season.
Lommel United have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lommel United in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lommel United, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with KRC Genk II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lommel United have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Lommel United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 65% versus Lommel United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 63% | Lommel United 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.35 xG and Lommel United 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 1.242 / defence 1.043 | Lommel United attack 1.186 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.474. Data: 44 KRC Genk II games / 44 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 29% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 49%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Lommel United 2.04. Lommel United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lommel United at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lommel United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 70% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 29% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG KRC Genk II 1.35 / Lommel United 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 1.242 / def 1.043 | Lommel United attack 1.186 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.474 • Poisson stance: Lommel United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Lommel United xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
KRC Genk II 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United part of?
KRC Genk II vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 29% chance of winning, Lommel United a 49% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lommel United the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KRC Genk II and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Record (5 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 0 | Lommel United 4W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from KRC Genk II's attack rating (1.24) and Lommel United's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lommel United's attack (1.19x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lommel United Win
29%
3.50
23%
4.38
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.18
1.82
Lommel United xG
3.50
29%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
5%
21.73
13%
7.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.82 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, KRC Genk II have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 14W 12D 28L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 27W 8D 19L from 54 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lommel United are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, KRC Genk II have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (7W 6D 14L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 13W 5D 9L from 27 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.65 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Lommel United in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 14W 12D 28L in their last 54 games (1.00 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 27W 8D 19L in their last 54 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Lommel United away?
Lommel United's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.00 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.63 PPG.
Have KRC Genk II or Lommel United been keeping clean sheets recently?
KRC Genk II have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Lommel United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lommel United won 0-4 on 25 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lommel United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
7
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 2, Lommel United have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when KRC Genk II 0-2 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 59%, Lommel United 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for KRC Genk II and 70% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 33%; KRC Genk II have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of KRC Genk II's games and 56% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of KRC Genk II's matches and 70% of Lommel United's.
Do KRC Genk II and Lommel United tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and Lommel United finished level at 1-1 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.35 xG and Lommel United 1.82 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Lommel United landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 1.24 / defence 1.04 against Lommel United attack 1.19 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 29% | Draw 23% | Lommel United 49%, with Lommel United to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 63%, Lommel United 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.