KRC Genk II 1-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Excelsior Virton make the trip to Cegeka Arena to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 4. The match kicks off on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
KRC Genk II (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II at Cegeka Arena this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Excelsior Virton's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior Virton's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in KRC Genk II's favour (1.20 vs 0.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Excelsior Virton in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: KRC Genk II 1W, Excelsior Virton 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2023, ended 1–0 with KRC Genk II winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KRC Genk II 60% and Excelsior Virton 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 60% | Excelsior Virton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.67 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.926 / defence 1.170 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.934 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.453. Excelsior Virton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing KRC Genk II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 KRC Genk II games / 50 Excelsior Virton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 40% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 37%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Excelsior Virton 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KRC Genk II as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: KRC Genk II 60% | Excelsior Virton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 40% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG KRC Genk II 1.67 / Excelsior Virton 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.926 / def 1.170 | Excelsior Virton attack 0.934 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.429 / away 1.453 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Excelsior Virton xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton?
KRC Genk II 1 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton part of?
KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 40% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 1W | Draws 0 | Excelsior Virton 1W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KRC Genk II's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Excelsior Virton's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Excelsior Virton's attack (0.93x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 22/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
40%
2.50
23%
4.31
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.25
1.59
Excelsior Virton xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
7%
14.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.2 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 1.59 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 6W 6D 13L from 25 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior Virton, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 14L across 25 games — 0.68 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for KRC Genk II against 0.68 for Excelsior Virton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Excelsior Virton's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.96 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Excelsior Virton in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Blended
Excelsior Virton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 6W 6D 13L in their last 25 games (0.96 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 3W 8D 14L in their last 25 (0.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Excelsior Virton away?
KRC Genk II's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 1.08 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
KRC Genk II
1
Draws
2
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton?
From 4 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 1, Excelsior Virton have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when Excelsior Virton 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton?
Excelsior Virton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior Virton see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for KRC Genk II, 75% for Excelsior Virton — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for KRC Genk II and 75% for Excelsior Virton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Excelsior Virton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of KRC Genk II's games and 75% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of KRC Genk II's matches and 75% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II and Excelsior Virton finished level at 1-1 at Cegeka Arena, Relegation Round - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.67 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.59 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.93 / defence 1.17 against Excelsior Virton attack 0.93 / defence 1.26, drawn from 22/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 40% | Draw 23% | Excelsior Virton 37%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 60%, Excelsior Virton 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KRC Genk II 0.96 PPG, Excelsior Virton 0.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.