K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates K. Lierse S.K. at 43%, yet in-form Francs Borains provide a compelling counter-argument — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Francs Borains make the trip to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to face K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Francs Borains have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Francs Borains are 0.60 PPG clear of K. Lierse S.K. in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — K. Lierse S.K. lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Francs Borains winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
K. Lierse S.K. half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Francs Borains half-time and goal-timing data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — K. Lierse S.K. 65% versus Francs Borains 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 74% | Francs Borains 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 xG and Francs Borains 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.087 / defence 1.233 | Francs Borains attack 0.850 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.445. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 K. Lierse S.K. games / 23 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 43% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 34%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Francs Borains 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, K. Lierse S.K. are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Francs Borains (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on K. Lierse S.K. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Francs Borains 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 43% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 / Francs Borains 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.087 / def 1.233 | Francs Borains attack 0.850 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Francs Borains xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
K. Lierse S.K. 3 - 1 Francs Borains.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 43% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
Record (1 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 0W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.09x the league average against Francs Borains's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Francs Borains's attack (0.85x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 45/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
43%
2.31
23%
4.34
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.25
1.51
Francs Borains xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.54
18%
5.69
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
6%
16.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.51 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 23 games, going 6W 4D 13L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Francs Borains sit at 1.13 PPG from 23 outings (8W 2D 13L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.13 for Francs Borains. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 3W 1D 7L across 11 games on their own ground, a 0.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Francs Borains have taken 0.82 points per game from 11 outings (3W 0D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 2.09 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.17 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 games (0.96 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 8W 2D 13L in their last 23 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Francs Borains away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 0.91 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: K. Lierse S.K. won 4-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Francs Borains — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
3
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains?
From 6 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 3, Francs Borains have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-2 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — K. Lierse S.K. 73%, Francs Borains 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for K. Lierse S.K. and 64% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 46% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 64% of Francs Borains's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Francs Borains tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Francs Borains 3-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.74 xG and Francs Borains 1.51 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.09 / defence 1.23 against Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.32, drawn from 45/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 43% | Draw 23% | Francs Borains 34%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 74%, Francs Borains 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Francs Borains's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 0.96 PPG, Francs Borains 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.