Francs Borains 0-1 Olympic Charleroi – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Francs Borains at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Robert Urbain plays host to Francs Borains versus Olympic Charleroi in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Sunday 9 November 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Francs Borains's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Urbain, Francs Borains have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.
Olympic Charleroi (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Olympic Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympic Charleroi's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Francs Borains's favour (1.00 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Olympic Charleroi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 46% versus Olympic Charleroi 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 46% | Olympic Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.51 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.994 / defence 0.900 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.626 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.283 / away 1.406. Data: 40 Francs Borains games / 11 Olympic Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 51% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 17%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Olympic Charleroi 5.88. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Francs Borains as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 40% | Olympic Charleroi 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 51% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Francs Borains 1.51 / Olympic Charleroi 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.994 / def 0.900 | Olympic Charleroi attack 0.626 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.283 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Olympic Charleroi xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi kick off?
Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi?
Francs Borains 0 - 1 Olympic Charleroi.
Where is Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi part of?
Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 51% chance of winning, Olympic Charleroi a 17% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-D. Olympic Charleroi (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Olympic Charleroi's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Olympic Charleroi's attack (0.63x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 40/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
51%
1.95
32%
3.13
17%
6.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.31
0.79
Olympic Charleroi xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
6.02
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
27.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Francs Borains and 0.79 for Olympic Charleroi, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 2W 5D 4L from 11 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympic Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 0W 3D 8L across 11 games — 0.27 PPG, with D-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Olympic Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Francs Borains by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Olympic Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Olympic Charleroi's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Francs Borains come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Francs Borains are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Olympic Charleroi are on 0.36 scored and 2.18 conceded.
Defensively: Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Olympic Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Olympic Charleroi have gone 0W 3D 8L in their last 11 (0.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Olympic Charleroi away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.25 PPG; Olympic Charleroi away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Olympic Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Olympic Charleroi in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
0
Draws
1
Olympic Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, Olympic Charleroi have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Olympic Charleroi 0-3 Francs Borains.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Olympic Charleroi see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 25%, Olympic Charleroi 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Francs Borains) and 50% (Olympic Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 50% of games; Olympic Charleroi in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Olympic Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Olympic Charleroi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 50% of Olympic Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Olympic Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Francs Borains's recent games and 50% of Olympic Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Olympic Charleroi tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympic Charleroi in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympic Charleroi defy the odds to beat Francs Borains 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympic Charleroi beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.51 xG and Olympic Charleroi 0.79 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Olympic Charleroi attack 0.63 / defence 1.19, drawn from 40/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 51% | Draw 32% | Olympic Charleroi 17%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Olympic Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 46%, Olympic Charleroi 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympic Charleroi's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Francs Borains arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.27. Form was overturned, with Olympic Charleroi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympic Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.