Francs Borains 1-0 Lokeren-Temse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lokeren-Temse at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Lokeren-Temse at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 March 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Francs Borains have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's home record at Stade Robert Urbain: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lokeren-Temse — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lokeren-Temse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Lokeren-Temse have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lokeren-Temse — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Francs Borains have won 1, Lokeren-Temse 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lokeren-Temse in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 46% versus Lokeren-Temse 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 51% | Lokeren-Temse 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.80 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.646 / defence 0.847 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.036 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.387. Francs Borains's attack strength of 0.646 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 Francs Borains games / 55 Lokeren-Temse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 24% | Draw 30% | Lokeren-Temse 46%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Lokeren-Temse 2.17. Lokeren-Temse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lokeren-Temse at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lokeren-Temse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 10% | Lokeren-Temse 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Mar 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 24% | Draw 30% | Lokeren-Temse 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 39% | xG Francs Borains 0.80 / Lokeren-Temse 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.646 / def 0.847 | Lokeren-Temse attack 1.036 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Lokeren-Temse (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Lokeren-Temse xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse kick off?
Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 12 March 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Francs Borains 1 - 0 Lokeren-Temse.
Where is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse part of?
Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 24% chance of winning, Lokeren-Temse a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lokeren-Temse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 1 | Lokeren-Temse 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Lokeren-Temse (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.65x league average) is weighed against Lokeren-Temse's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Lokeren-Temse's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.6%), 0-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lokeren-Temse Win
24%
4.12
30%
3.36
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.02
1.22
Lokeren-Temse xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
7%
13.92
21%
4.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 16.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.22 for Lokeren-Temse, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 15W 11D 29L from 55 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lokeren-Temse, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 19L across 55 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lokeren-Temse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Francs Borains on 1.02 PPG, Lokeren-Temse on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 7W 6D 14L from 27 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lokeren-Temse's away record stands at 13W 5D 9L across 27 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lokeren-Temse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Francs Borains are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lokeren-Temse are on 1.31 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Lokeren-Temse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 15W 11D 29L in their last 55 games (1.02 PPG), while Lokeren-Temse have gone 21W 15D 19L in their last 55 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Lokeren-Temse away?
Lokeren-Temse's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.00 PPG; Lokeren-Temse away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 12 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Francs Borains's record when hosting Lokeren-Temse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
1
Draws
1
Lokeren-Temse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
From 4 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Lokeren-Temse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2026, when Francs Borains 1-0 Lokeren-Temse.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 41%, Lokeren-Temse 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Francs Borains) and 48% (Lokeren-Temse).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Lokeren-Temse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Lokeren-Temse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 59% of Lokeren-Temse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Lokeren-Temse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Francs Borains's recent games and 48% of Lokeren-Temse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Lokeren-Temse tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Lokeren-Temse in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Francs Borains defy the odds to beat Lokeren-Temse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Lokeren-Temse 1-0 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 29, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 0.80 xG and Lokeren-Temse 1.22 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lokeren-Temse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.65 / defence 0.85 against Lokeren-Temse attack 1.04 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 24% | Draw 30% | Lokeren-Temse 46%, with Lokeren-Temse to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, Lokeren-Temse 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.02 PPG, Lokeren-Temse 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Francs Borains win broke the near-deadlock. Francs Borains (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Lokeren-Temse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.