Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Francs Borains at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade Robert Urbain to face Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Robert Urbain this season.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, KRC Genk II have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Francs Borains's favour (1.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Francs Borains lead 1W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Francs Borains 53% and KRC Genk II 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Francs Borains 67% | KRC Genk II 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.66 xG and KRC Genk II 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.871 / defence 1.167 | KRC Genk II attack 0.851 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.405. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Francs Borains games / 45 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 44% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 32%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.27 | Draw 4.17 | KRC Genk II 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.05 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Francs Borains 70% | KRC Genk II 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 44% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Francs Borains 1.66 / KRC Genk II 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.871 / def 1.167 | KRC Genk II attack 0.851 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.40
KRC Genk II xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Francs Borains 2 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II part of?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 44% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 32% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Francs Borains and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.85x) against Francs Borains's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
44%
2.29
24%
4.19
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
3.05
1.40
KRC Genk II xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.55
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
6%
16.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.40 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 14W 6D 25L from 45 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 24L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Francs Borains against 1.04 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 6W 3D 13L from 22 games — 0.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 5W 5D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Francs Borains are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.42 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 69%.
Last 45 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 14W 6D 25L in their last 45 games (1.07 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 8D 24L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or KRC Genk II away?
Francs Borains's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 0.95 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won 2-5 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
3
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 54%, KRC Genk II 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Francs Borains and 73% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 59% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Francs Borains's games and 73% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Francs Borains's matches and 73% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Francs Borains and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Francs Borains and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains and KRC Genk II finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.66 xG and KRC Genk II 1.40 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against KRC Genk II attack 0.85 / defence 1.28, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 44% | Draw 24% | KRC Genk II 32%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 67%, KRC Genk II 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.07 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.