Francs Borains 0-1 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Francs Borains vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Francs Borains host Deinze at Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 November 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Robert Urbain, Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 2L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Francs Borains are significantly better at Stade Robert Urbain than their overall form suggests.
Deinze — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Deinze have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Deinze are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Trading Patterns
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Deinze in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 33% versus Deinze 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 50% | Deinze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.08 xG and Deinze 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.834 / defence 1.023 | Deinze attack 0.955 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.446. Data: 12 Francs Borains games / 34 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 29% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 3.45 | Draw 3.70 | Deinze 2.22. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Francs Borains 33% | Deinze 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Nov 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 29% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Francs Borains 1.08 / Deinze 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.834 / def 1.023 | Deinze attack 0.955 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Deinze (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Deinze xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs Deinze kick off?
Francs Borains vs Deinze kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Francs Borains 0 - 1 Deinze.
Where is Francs Borains vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs Deinze part of?
Francs Borains vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 29% chance of winning, Deinze a 45% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Francs Borains and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Deinze?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Francs Borains and Deinze in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Deinze (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Francs Borains's attack rating (0.83) and Deinze's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Francs Borains's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
29%
3.47
27%
3.76
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.49
1.41
Deinze xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
7%
14.24
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.41 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Francs Borains have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 4W 1D 7L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze's form line: 6W 2D 4L from 12 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Francs Borains have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (3W 1D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Francs Borains are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Deinze have gone 2W 0D 4L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Francs Borains come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Francs Borains are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.33 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and Deinze in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 4W 1D 7L in their last 12 games (1.08 PPG), while Deinze have gone 6W 2D 4L in their last 12 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or Deinze away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.67 PPG; Deinze away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Francs Borains or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Francs Borains have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Deinze in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Francs Borains and Deinze runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Francs Borains go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Francs Borains won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Francs Borains
0
Draws
1
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and Deinze?
From 3 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 2, Deinze have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Deinze 0-3 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and Deinze?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Francs Borains see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 33%, Deinze 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Francs Borains) and 67% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play Deinze?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 67% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Francs Borains's recent games and 67% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Francs Borains and Deinze tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Deinze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out Francs Borains 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Francs Borains 0-1 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 13, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.08 xG and Deinze 1.41 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Francs Borains fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Deinze attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 12/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 29% | Draw 27% | Deinze 45%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 50%, Deinze 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Deinze (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.