Deinze 1-1 Dender – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deinze at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Deinze face Dender.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Dender at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Deinze stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Deinze's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Deinze are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Dender — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Dender have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 1.60 PPG versus Dender's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Deinze, 2 for Dender and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2023, ended Deinze 3–2 Dender — a Deinze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Dender in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 60% versus Dender 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | Dender 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.16 xG and Dender 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.189 / defence 0.805 | Dender attack 1.005 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.172 / away 1.358. Data: built from Deinze's last 32 games and Dender's last 32.
Result probabilities: Deinze 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.69 | Draw 3.49 | Dender 2.93. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Deinze 60% (last 10 home games) | Dender 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Dender | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Deinze 1.16 / Dender 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.189 / def 0.805 | Dender attack 1.005 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.172 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Deinze (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dender xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deinze vs Dender FAQs
What time does Deinze vs Dender kick off?
Deinze vs Dender kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Dender?
Deinze 1 - 1 Dender.
Where is Deinze vs Dender being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Dender part of?
Deinze vs Dender is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Dender?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 37% chance of winning, Dender a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Dender?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Deinze and Dender will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Deinze vs Dender have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Deinze's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Dender's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Dender's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deinze's last 32 games and Dender's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
37%
2.69
29%
3.49
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.26
1.10
Dender xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
11%
9.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.3 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deinze vs Dender Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Dender?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Deinze and Dender expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Deinze and 1.10 for Dender, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Dender?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deinze's recent record stands at 20W 5D 17L from 42 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Dender, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 17L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.55 PPG, Dender on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Deinze have managed 13W 3D 5L from their last 21 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Deinze are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Dender's away record stands at 8W 7D 6L across their last 21 away games, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Dender are on 1.36 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Dender
Blended
Deinze (Home) vs Dender (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deinze
Blended
Dender
Blended
❓ Deinze vs Dender Form FAQs
What form are Deinze and Dender in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 20W 5D 17L in their last 42 games (1.55 PPG), while Dender have gone 15W 10D 17L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Dender away?
Deinze's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 2.00 PPG; Dender away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Dender won Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Deinze's record when hosting Dender specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
3
Dender
Recent Meetings
❓ Deinze vs Dender H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Dender?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Deinze have won 2, Dender have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Deinze and Dender last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Dender?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 71%, Dender 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Deinze) and 29% (Dender).
On the defensive side: Dender in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Dender away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deinze vs Dender Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deinze and Dender matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Deinze's games and 57% of Dender's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deinze and Dender matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Deinze's recent games and 29% of Dender's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Dender matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Deinze's recent matches and 62% of Dender's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and Dender share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and Dender finished level at 1-1 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.16 xG and Dender 1.10 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.19 / defence 0.81 against Dender attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 37% | Draw 29% | Dender 34%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, Dender 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dender's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.55 PPG, Dender 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.