AS Eupen 1-3 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Zulte Waregem at 53% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Zulte Waregem travel to Kehrwegstadion to take on AS Eupen. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Eupen stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. AS Eupen have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Eupen's home record at Kehrwegstadion: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Zulte Waregem — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Zulte Waregem have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Zulte Waregem's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Zulte Waregem are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for AS Eupen, 2 for Zulte Waregem and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 5.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 1–5 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Eupen in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Eupen 46% versus Zulte Waregem 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Eupen 49% | Zulte Waregem 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Eupen 1.33 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Eupen attack 0.980 / defence 1.229 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.119 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.460. Data: 3 AS Eupen games / 33 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 53%. Fair-value odds: AS Eupen 4.00 | Draw 4.55 | Zulte Waregem 1.89. Zulte Waregem hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 2.01) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AS Eupen 40% | Zulte Waregem 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Kehrwegstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Eupen 25% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG AS Eupen 1.33 / Zulte Waregem 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: AS Eupen attack 0.980 / def 1.229 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.119 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
AS Eupen xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Zulte Waregem xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Kehrwegstadion.
What was the final score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
AS Eupen 1 - 3 Zulte Waregem.
Where is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Kehrwegstadion.
What competition is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem part of?
AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives AS Eupen a 25% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 53% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
Record (4 meetings): AS Eupen 0W | Draws 2 | Zulte Waregem 2W.
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in?
AS Eupen (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Eupen's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Zulte Waregem's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus AS Eupen's defence, projects 2.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
25%
3.95
22%
4.63
53%
1.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
AS Eupen xG
Total xG
3.34
2.01
Zulte Waregem xG
3.95
25%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
1.88
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
3%
29.42
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.5 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.3 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for AS Eupen and 2.01 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Eupen's recent record stands at 7W 4D 24L from 35 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for AS Eupen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 16W 8D 11L across 35 games — 1.60 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AS Eupen heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Eupen have managed 5W 3D 9L from 17 games — 1.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 11W 3D 3L across 17 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.60 PPG overall record — Zulte Waregem travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Eupen are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.57 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Eupen
Early Season
Zulte Waregem
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
AS Eupen have gone 7W 4D 24L in their last 35 games (0.71 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 16W 8D 11L in their last 35 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Eupen at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Eupen at home: 1.06 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Jupiler Pro League, Challenger Pro League all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Zulte Waregem have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when Zulte Waregem won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Eupen's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
AS Eupen
2
Draws
4
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Eupen have won 0, Zulte Waregem have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-2 AS Eupen.
Who has won more matches between AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Eupen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Zulte Waregem see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Eupen 59%, Zulte Waregem 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (AS Eupen) and 65% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Eupen home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Eupen play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of AS Eupen's games and 59% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AS Eupen vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of AS Eupen's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do AS Eupen and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
AS Eupen have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over AS Eupen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat AS Eupen 1-3 at Kehrwegstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Eupen 1.33 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.01 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zulte Waregem outscored their 2.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Eupen attack 0.98 / defence 1.23 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Eupen 25% | Draw 22% | Zulte Waregem 53%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Eupen 49%, Zulte Waregem 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Eupen's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. AS Eupen (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.