WSG Wattens 1-0 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Sturm Graz at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, WSG Wattens stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.20 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against WSG Wattens's 1 victories.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2025, ended 3–1 with WSG Wattens winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus Sturm Graz 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Sturm Graz 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Sturm Graz 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.010 / defence 1.143 | Sturm Graz attack 1.182 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.278. Data: 40 WSG Wattens games / 40 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 47%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.33 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 2.13. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 80% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG WSG Wattens 1.33 / Sturm Graz 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.010 / def 1.143 | Sturm Graz attack 1.182 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Sturm Graz xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
WSG Wattens 1 - 0 Sturm Graz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 30% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Record (8 meetings): WSG Wattens 1W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 6W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
30%
3.36
24%
4.25
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.06
1.73
Sturm Graz xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
18%
5.63
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
5%
18.94
12%
8.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.2 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.73 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 12W 15D 23L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 29W 7D 14L from 50 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against WSG Wattens.
Venue Form
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.12 PPG from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 15W 3D 6L from 24 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.88 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 15D 23L in their last 50 games (1.02 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 29W 7D 14L in their last 50 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.12 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 54%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (WSG Wattens) and 67% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 33%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of WSG Wattens's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of WSG Wattens's matches and 67% of Sturm Graz's.
Do WSG Wattens and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Sturm Graz 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.33 xG and Sturm Graz 1.73 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.01 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.18 / defence 0.98, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 30% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 47%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.