WSG Wattens 3-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Lustenau at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Austria Lustenau travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 October 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — WSG Wattens are significantly better at Tivoli Stadion Tirol than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.10 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. WSG Wattens register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Austria Lustenau in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for WSG Wattens, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 73% and Austria Lustenau 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 82% | Austria Lustenau 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.26 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / defence 1.175 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.711 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.770. Data: 33 WSG Wattens games / 11 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 29% | Draw 32% | Austria Lustenau 39%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Lustenau 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Lustenau as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | Austria Lustenau 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 29% | Draw 32% | Austria Lustenau 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG WSG Wattens 1.26 / Austria Lustenau 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.803 / def 1.175 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.711 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.770 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Austria Lustenau xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens 3 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 29% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
Record (1 meetings): WSG Wattens 0W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.80x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.17
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.74
1.48
Austria Lustenau xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
11%
9.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.48 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 2D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.09 PPG from 11 outings (3W 3D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.00 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 1W 2D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.00 points per game from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L).
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.27 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Austria Lustenau in 73%.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 6L in their last 11 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Lustenau away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2024, when WSG Wattens 0-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 60%, Austria Lustenau at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for WSG Wattens and 60% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of WSG Wattens's games and 80% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of WSG Wattens's matches and 60% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat Austria Lustenau 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Lustenau 3-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.26 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.48 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.71 / defence 1.16, drawn from 33/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 29% | Draw 32% | Austria Lustenau 39%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 82%, Austria Lustenau 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.