Wolfsberger AC 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs SCR Altach encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Wolfsberger AC welcome SCR Altach to Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 14). Kick-off is Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Wolfsberger AC — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Wolfsberger AC at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have recorded 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SCR Altach away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Wolfsberger AC have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 60% of SCR Altach's (from Wolfsberger AC's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 1 for SCR Altach and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Wolfsberger AC 0–2 SCR Altach — a SCR Altach win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 51% versus SCR Altach 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 51% | SCR Altach 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.42 xG and SCR Altach 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.905 / defence 1.240 | SCR Altach attack 0.847 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.086. Wolfsberger AC's defence rating of 1.240 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SCR Altach's projected output up. Data: built from Wolfsberger AC's last 35 games and SCR Altach's last 35.

Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 43% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.35 | Draw 3.59 | SCR Altach 3.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Wolfsberger AC are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wolfsberger AC 70% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 60% (last 10 away games).

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