Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal-Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 1 September 2026, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lavanttal-Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 6D 0L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lask Linz are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Wolfsberger AC have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 9 past contests while Lask Linz have managed just 3 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2026, ended 1–3 with Lask Linz winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Wolfsberger AC and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Lask Linz trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 58% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 58% | Lask Linz 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.089 / defence 0.862 | Lask Linz attack 1.122 / defence 0.829. League average goals — home 1.590 / away 1.117. Data: 26 Wolfsberger AC games / 26 Lask Linz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 25%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Lask Linz 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Wolfsberger AC dominate the H2H record, yet Lask Linz are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lask Linz (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Tuesday 1 Sep 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.44 / Lask Linz 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.089 / def 0.862 | Lask Linz attack 1.122 / def 0.829 | league avg home 1.590 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lask Linz xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 1 September 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 42% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Record (9 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 6W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (1.09) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.09
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.52
1.08
Lask Linz xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
14%
6.97
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.08 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 12W 10D 14L from 36 games, a 1.28 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 8L across 36 games — 1.94 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.66 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wolfsberger AC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 7D 3L from 17 games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 8W 4D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.89 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 14L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 21W 7D 8L in their last 36 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.65 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 6, Lask Linz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 53%, Lask Linz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Wolfsberger AC) and 59% (Lask Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 59% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 59% of Lask Linz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 1-3 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.44 xG and Lask Linz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 0.83, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 25%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Lask Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 58%, Lask Linz 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.28. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.