TSV Hartberg 2-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as TSV Hartberg welcome Wolfsberger AC to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 0.70 PPG versus Wolfsberger AC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Wolfsberger AC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 1–3 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 57% and Wolfsberger AC 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 53% | Wolfsberger AC 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.929 / defence 1.265 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.266 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.323. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.266 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 TSV Hartberg games / 41 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 21% | Draw 21% | Wolfsberger AC 59%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Wolfsberger AC 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Wolfsberger AC (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.19 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Wolfsberger AC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 21% | Draw 21% | Wolfsberger AC 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.19 / Wolfsberger AC 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.929 / def 1.265 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.266 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Wolfsberger AC xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 21% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 59% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (1 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 0 | Wolfsberger AC 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.93x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
21%
4.84
21%
4.86
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.31
2.12
Wolfsberger AC xG
4.84
21%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
12%
8.33
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
2%
40.31
18%
5.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.12 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 11W 14D 26L from 51 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 24L across 51 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 0.92 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 5W 7D 13L from 25 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wolfsberger AC's away record stands at 11W 4D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.61 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC in 71%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 14D 26L in their last 51 games (0.92 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 20W 7D 24L in their last 51 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.88 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2023, when TSV Hartberg won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 8 November 2025, when Wolfsberger AC 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 64%, Wolfsberger AC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for TSV Hartberg and 76% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of TSV Hartberg's games and 64% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 76% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Wolfsberger AC 2.12 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.26 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.27 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 21% | Draw 21% | Wolfsberger AC 59%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 53%, Wolfsberger AC 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 0.92 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.