TSV Hartberg 1-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Sturm Graz at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 5W 3D 2L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PROfertil ARENA. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — TSV Hartberg are significantly better at PROfertil ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Sturm Graz have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Sturm Graz's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Sturm Graz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Sturm Graz 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Sturm Graz 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / defence 0.933 | Sturm Graz attack 1.171 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Sturm Graz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 30% | Sturm Graz 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.06 / Sturm Graz 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.965 / def 0.933 | Sturm Graz attack 1.171 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 14 April 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 33% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.10
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.16
1.11
Sturm Graz xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
12%
8.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.11 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 18W 14D 25L from 57 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 35W 13D 9L across 57 games — 2.07 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.88 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 15W 9D 4L across 28 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.74 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 35W 13D 9L in their last 57 (2.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.32 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.93 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
7
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 7, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 50%, Sturm Graz 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (TSV Hartberg) and 46% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 39%; TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of TSV Hartberg's games and 61% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 46% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 1-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.06 xG and Sturm Graz 1.11 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Sturm Graz attack 1.17 / defence 0.82, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Sturm Graz 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.