TSV Hartberg 2-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as TSV Hartberg face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, SCR Altach have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.4 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2025, ended TSV Hartberg 1–1 SCR Altach — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 58% versus SCR Altach 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 58% | SCR Altach 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.65 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.861 / defence 1.064 | SCR Altach attack 0.972 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. SCR Altach's defence rating of 1.202 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing TSV Hartberg's projected output up. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and SCR Altach's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.26 | Draw 3.37 | SCR Altach 3.84. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.65 / 1.24) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and SCR Altach's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | SCR Altach 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.65 / SCR Altach 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.861 / def 1.064 | SCR Altach attack 0.972 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
SCR Altach xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 4 May 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 44% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.86) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.97x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and SCR Altach's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
44%
2.26
30%
3.37
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.24
SCR Altach xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
20.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.3 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.24 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 60 games, going 20W 17D 23L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.90 PPG from 60 outings (11W 21D 28L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.90 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 8D 12L across their last 30 home games, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.87 points per game from their last 30 away games (6W 8D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, TSV Hartberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.90 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs SCR Altach (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 20W 17D 23L in their last 60 games (1.28 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 11W 21D 28L in their last 60 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.27 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
TSV Hartberg have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won TSV Hartberg 3-0 SCR Altach on 8 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
TSV Hartberg
5
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 5, SCR Altach have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: TSV Hartberg 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, SCR Altach 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 47% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 67% of SCR Altach's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.65 xG and SCR Altach 1.24 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.20, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 44% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 26%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 58%, SCR Altach 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.28 PPG, SCR Altach 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.