TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as TSV Hartberg take on Ried.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to Profertil Arena Hartberg to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's home record at Profertil Arena Hartberg: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Ried (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for TSV Hartberg, 1.30 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Across 9 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 9 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 2–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 6 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 50% versus Ried 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Ried 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Ried 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.693 / defence 1.176 | Ried attack 0.948 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.424 / away 1.092. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ried bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 TSV Hartberg games / 26 Ried games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 34% | Ried 34%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.12 | Draw 2.94 | Ried 2.94. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Ried 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Profertil Arena Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 34% | Ried 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.19 / Ried 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.693 / def 1.176 | Ried attack 0.948 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.424 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Ried xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Ried kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 30 August 2026 at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 2 Ried.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Profertil Arena Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Ried part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 32% chance of winning, Ried a 34% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
Record (9 meetings): TSV Hartberg 6W | Draws 2 | Ried 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Ried (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.69) and Ried's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.95x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
34%
2.94
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.41
1.22
Ried xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.44
10%
9.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.0 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.22 for Ried, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 11W 12D 13L from 36 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 15L across 36 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.42 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 4W 5D 9L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 4W 4D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.89 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.19 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 11W 12D 13L in their last 36 games (1.25 PPG), while Ried have gone 15W 6D 15L in their last 36 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Ried away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.94 PPG; Ried away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the last 7 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 7, Ried have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-2 Ried.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Ried 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Ried).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of TSV Hartberg's games and 61% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Ried tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ried in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Ried 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 3-2 at Profertil Arena Hartberg, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG and Ried 1.22 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.69 / defence 1.18 against Ried attack 0.95 / defence 1.21, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 32% | Draw 34% | Ried 34%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Ried 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Ried's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.25 PPG, Ried 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Ried (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.