TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 45%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga (Conference League Play-offs - Final). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
TSV Hartberg at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Austria Vienna's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 2 for Austria Vienna and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.5 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 May 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 1–2 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 65% | Austria Vienna 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: TSV Hartberg surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.38 xG and Austria Vienna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / defence 0.952 | Austria Vienna attack 0.999 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.013. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 45% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.21 | Draw 3.35 | Austria Vienna 4.01. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 45% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.38 / Austria Vienna 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / def 0.952 | Austria Vienna attack 0.999 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Austria Vienna xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Tuesday 28 May 2024 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Conference League Play-offs - Final) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 45% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.35
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.34
0.96
Austria Vienna xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
6%
15.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.8 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.96 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 65 games, going 21W 15D 29L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-L.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.51 PPG from 65 outings (26W 20D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.20 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 11W 7D 14L across their last 32 home games, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.31 points per game from their last 32 away games (11W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.49 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Vienna
Current Season
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 21W 15D 29L in their last 65 games (1.20 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 26W 20D 19L in their last 65 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.25 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 56%, Austria Vienna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for TSV Hartberg and 56% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of TSV Hartberg's games and 59% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 56% of Austria Vienna's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 81% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.38 xG and Austria Vienna 0.96 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.95 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 45% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 65%, Austria Vienna 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.20 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.