TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 53%, yet in-form Austria Lustenau provide a compelling counter-argument — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Relegation Round - 1 sees Austria Lustenau travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Friday 31 March 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Lustenau have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Lustenau are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Austria Lustenau in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for TSV Hartberg, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Austria Lustenau 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 64% | Austria Lustenau 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.72 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.079 / defence 1.183 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.676 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.334. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 22 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 23%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 4.35. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Lustenau (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Austria Lustenau 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.72 / Austria Lustenau 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.079 / def 1.183 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.676 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 31 March 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 53% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Austria Lustenau's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.19
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.79
1.07
Austria Lustenau xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
4%
23.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.07 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 22 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 5W 3D 14L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 7W 6D 9L from 22 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Austria Lustenau are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Venue Form
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 3D 6L from 11 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Lustenau's season.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.32 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 7W 6D 9L in their last 22 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Lustenau away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
From 6 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 73%, Austria Lustenau 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (TSV Hartberg) and 46% (Austria Lustenau). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of TSV Hartberg's games and 54% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 46% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Lustenau defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.72 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.07 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.08 / defence 1.18 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 23%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Austria Lustenau win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 64%, Austria Lustenau 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Lustenau arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.