Sturm Graz 2-1 Ried – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Ried encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host Ried at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ried stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ried have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Sturm Graz have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sturm Graz have won 1, Ried 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Ried in-play and half-time data (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 62% and Ried 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 67% | Ried 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.45 xG and Ried 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.118 / defence 0.665 | Ried attack 0.521 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.768. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.665 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Sturm Graz games / 35 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 57% | Draw 28% | Ried 15%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.75 | Draw 3.57 | Ried 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 60% | Ried 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 57% | Draw 28% | Ried 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 36% | xG Sturm Graz 1.45 / Ried 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.118 / def 0.665 | Ried attack 0.521 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.768 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Ried xG
36%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Ried kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Sturm Graz 2 - 1 Ried.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Ried part of?
Sturm Graz vs Ried is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 57% chance of winning, Ried a 15% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sturm Graz and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Record (3 meetings): Sturm Graz 1W | Draws 2 | Ried 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ried (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Ried's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
57%
1.75
28%
3.61
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.07
0.61
Ried xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
4%
28.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 11.3 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 8.2 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.61 for Ried, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 24W 12D 9L from 45 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 18L across 45 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ried heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 14W 5D 4L from 23 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 3W 7D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.09 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Ried in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Ried in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 24W 12D 9L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while Ried have gone 11W 16D 18L in their last 45 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Ried away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.04 PPG; Ried away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Ried been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ried in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting Ried specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Ried?
From 6 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Ried have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Ried?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 61%, Ried 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Sturm Graz) and 35% (Ried).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Ried in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sturm Graz's games and 52% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 74% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 35% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Ried tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ried in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Ried 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Ried 2-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.45 xG and Ried 0.61 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.12 / defence 0.67 against Ried attack 0.52 / defence 0.90, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 57% | Draw 28% | Ried 15%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 67%, Ried 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Ried's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.09. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.