SCR Altach 2-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SCR Altach face Wolfsberger AC.

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Analysis & Preview

Wolfsberger AC travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach in Bundesliga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, SCR Altach have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Wolfsberger AC — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Wolfsberger AC away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.60 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, SCR Altach have won 0, Wolfsberger AC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 4 May 2024, ended SCR Altach 0–1 Wolfsberger AC — a Wolfsberger AC win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Wolfsberger AC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Wolfsberger AC 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.57 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.890 / defence 1.095 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.975 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.101. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 24 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 24. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 46% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 29%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.15 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 3.50. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (SCR Altach 24 games, Wolfsberger AC 24) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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