SCR Altach 0-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 3D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for SCR Altach, 0 for TSV Hartberg and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 45% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 53% | TSV Hartberg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.20 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.818 / defence 0.996 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.774 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 40% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 31%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | TSV Hartberg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form TSV Hartberg (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | TSV Hartberg 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 40% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG SCR Altach 1.20 / TSV Hartberg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.818 / def 0.996 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.774 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 0 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 40% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (1 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.77x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
40%
2.51
29%
3.48
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.23
1.03
TSV Hartberg xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.05
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.03 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 12W 16D 32L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 14W 18D 28L from 60 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.87 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.00 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.83 PPG from 30 outings (5W 10D 15L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 9D 14L from 30 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.30 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 16D 32L in their last 60 games (0.87 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 18D 28L in their last 60 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.83 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
6
Draws
4
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, TSV Hartberg 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SCR Altach) and 53% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 43% of games; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 53% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SCR Altach's recent games and 53% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat SCR Altach 0-1 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.20 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.77 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 40% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 31%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 53%, TSV Hartberg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.87 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.