SCR Altach 0-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (36%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as SCR Altach face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 1.00 PPG clear of SCR Altach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SCR Altach have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lask Linz in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Lask Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus Lask Linz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Lask Linz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Lask Linz 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.726 / defence 0.998 | Lask Linz attack 1.052 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.199. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 30% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 36%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.33 | Draw 2.94 | Lask Linz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 60% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 30% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG SCR Altach 1.13 / Lask Linz 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.726 / def 0.998 | Lask Linz attack 1.052 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Lask Linz xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
SCR Altach 0 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 30% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 36% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SCR Altach and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.73) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.05x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
30%
3.36
34%
2.95
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.39
1.26
Lask Linz xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
8%
11.83
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.6 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.26 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 9W 20D 25L record — W-D-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 23W 14D 17L from 54 games, 1.54 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.89 PPG from 27 outings (4W 12D 11L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 20D 25L in their last 54 games (0.87 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 23W 14D 17L in their last 54 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.89 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.41 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Lask Linz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 29 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SCR Altach
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 52%, Lask Linz 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (SCR Altach) and 52% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 37% of games; Lask Linz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of SCR Altach's games and 59% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of SCR Altach's recent games and 52% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Lask Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 0-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.13 xG and Lask Linz 1.26 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.73 / defence 1.00 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 30% | Draw 34% | Lask Linz 36%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Lask Linz 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lask Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.