Ried 2-2 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Ried welcome Rapid Vienna to josko ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried at josko ARENA this season: 4W 3D 0L from 7 home games — 2.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 0W 4D 3L from 7 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.57 PPG). Away from home they average 0.86 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.57 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.30 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Ried have won 0, Rapid Vienna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 27% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 73% and Rapid Vienna 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 60% | Rapid Vienna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.72 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.049 / defence 1.038 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.695 / defence 1.335. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.336. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.335 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Ried games / 15 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 20%. Fair-value odds: Ried 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 5.00. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ried at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ried offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Ried 71% | Rapid Vienna 86% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 54% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Ried 1.72 / Rapid Vienna 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.049 / def 1.038 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.695 / def 1.335 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Ried (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Ried 2 - 2 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 54% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Ried and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Record (1 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 0 | Rapid Vienna 1W.
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in?
Ried (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.05x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.86
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ried xG
Total xG
2.69
0.96
Rapid Vienna xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
18%
5.61
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
28.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ried and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ried and 0.96 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Ried have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 5W 5D 5L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.33 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (4W 3D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 0W 4D 3L from 7 away games — 0.57 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rapid Vienna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.47 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 5W 5D 5L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Ried's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.14 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Rapid Vienna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rapid Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Ried
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
From 8 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ried at 71%, Rapid Vienna at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Ried) and 29% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Ried's games and 86% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Ried's recent games and 29% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried and Rapid Vienna finished level at 2-2 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.72 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.96 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.05 / defence 1.04 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.69 / defence 1.33, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 54% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 20%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 60%, Rapid Vienna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.33 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.