Ried 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Final as Ried welcome Rapid Vienna to Innviertel Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 May 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ried at Innviertel Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ried are significantly better at Innviertel Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.40 PPG versus Rapid Vienna's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Ried have won 2, Rapid Vienna 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ried trading profile (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 52% versus Rapid Vienna 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | Rapid Vienna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.807 / defence 1.096 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.913 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 22 Ried games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 36%. Fair-value odds: Ried 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Rapid Vienna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Ried 50% | Rapid Vienna 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Final | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 May 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 33% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Ried 1.08 / Rapid Vienna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.807 / def 1.096 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.913 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Rapid Vienna xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 22 May 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Ried 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Ried vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Ried vs Rapid Vienna is a Final fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 33% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 36% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Ried and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): Ried 2W | Draws 1 | Rapid Vienna 3W.
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.81x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
33%
3.02
30%
3.29
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ried xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Rapid Vienna xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ried and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ried and 1.15 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Ried have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 13W 6D 14L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 13W 8D 12L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.36 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ried have posted 1.81 PPG from 16 outings (9W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 6D 5L from 16 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.18 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 13W 6D 14L in their last 33 games (1.36 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 13W 8D 12L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Ried's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.81 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Rapid Vienna runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Rapid Vienna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rapid Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ried's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Ried
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
From 9 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Ried 1-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 44%, Rapid Vienna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ried) and 38% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Ried have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Rapid Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Ried's recent matches and 62% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ried's recent games and 38% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ried defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Innviertel Arena, Final, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.08 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.81 / defence 1.10 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.91 / defence 1.00, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 33% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 36%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, Rapid Vienna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.36 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.