Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 October 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 6W 4D 0L at Red Bull Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 49% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 58% | TSV Hartberg 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.94 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.069 / defence 0.513 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.710 / defence 1.314. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.781. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.314 — this is suppressing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.513 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Red Bull Salzburg games / 35 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 67% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 11%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.49 | Draw 4.55 | TSV Hartberg 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (67%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | TSV Hartberg 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 67% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 42% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.94 / TSV Hartberg 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.069 / def 0.513 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.710 / def 1.314 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.781 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.65
TSV Hartberg xG
42%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 67% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 11% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.94. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 1-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
67%
1.49
22%
4.54
11%
9.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.58
0.65
TSV Hartberg xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
9.29
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
14%
6.94
Win to Nil
35%
2.85
2%
64.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 9.5 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.1 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.65 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.44 PPG on a 34W 8D 3L record — D-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 10W 13D 22L from 45 games, 0.96 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.57 PPG from 23 outings (18W 5D 0L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 5W 7D 11L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.27 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 34W 8D 3L in their last 45 games (2.44 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 13D 22L in their last 45 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.57 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 44%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 56% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Red Bull Salzburg edge out TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.94 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.65 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Red Bull Salzburg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.07 / defence 0.51 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.71 / defence 1.31, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 67% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 11%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 58%, TSV Hartberg 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.48 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.