Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 May 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Red Bull Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sturm Graz away from home this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Red Bull Salzburg against 2.40 for Sturm Graz. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 48% versus Sturm Graz 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 54% | Sturm Graz 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.12 xG and Sturm Graz 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.100 / defence 0.780 | Sturm Graz attack 1.080 / defence 0.737. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. Sturm Graz's defence strength of 0.737 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Red Bull Salzburg games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 36%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 2.86 | Draw 3.45 | Sturm Graz 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Sturm Graz 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 May 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.12 / Sturm Graz 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.100 / def 0.780 | Sturm Graz attack 1.080 / def 0.737 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Sturm Graz xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 May 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Red Bull Salzburg 2 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 36% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Sturm Graz (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.08x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.82
29%
3.48
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.25
1.13
Sturm Graz xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
12%
8.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 11.9 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.13 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Red Bull Salzburg's recent record stands at 46W 12D 3L from 61 games, a 2.46 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 35W 14D 12L across 61 games — 1.95 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sturm Graz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Red Bull Salzburg have managed 22W 8D 0L from 30 games — 2.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 15W 9D 6L across 30 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.26 goals scored and 0.61 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.87 scored and 1.15 conceded. Sturm Graz's attacking output running into Red Bull Salzburg's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 64%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 46W 12D 3L in their last 61 games (2.46 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 35W 14D 12L in their last 61 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Sturm Graz away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.47 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Red Bull Salzburg
4
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 43%, Sturm Graz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 53% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Sturm Graz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 63% of Sturm Graz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 53% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Red Bull Salzburg defy the odds to beat Sturm Graz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 2-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.12 xG and Sturm Graz 1.13 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.10 / defence 0.78 against Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 35% | Draw 29% | Sturm Graz 36%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Red Bull Salzburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 54%, Sturm Graz 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.