Rapid Vienna 2-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs WSG Wattens encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

WSG Wattens travel to Allianz Stadion to take on Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Rapid Vienna's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Rapid Vienna 1.20 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Rapid Vienna: 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for WSG Wattens, with 1 draw.

The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Rapid Vienna 2–1 WSG Wattens — a Rapid Vienna win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Rapid Vienna and goals — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches and an average of 2.8 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

In-Play Data

Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).

WSG Wattens trading profile (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 41% versus WSG Wattens 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 35% | WSG Wattens 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.48 xG and WSG Wattens 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.999 / defence 0.843 | WSG Wattens attack 1.074 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.101. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 24 games and WSG Wattens's last 24. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 48% | Draw 26% | WSG Wattens 26%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.07 | Draw 3.82 | WSG Wattens 3.92. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Rapid Vienna 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 30% (last 10 home games) | WSG Wattens 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Rapid Vienna 24 games, WSG Wattens 24) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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