Rapid Vienna 0-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 2W 2D 4L across 8 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 2W 0D 2L from 4 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.12 PPG across 8 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 1L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.62 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 2W 1D 0L from 3 away outings — 2.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.67 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 1.12 PPG advantage (2.12 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; they lead at the break 62% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 50% and Sturm Graz 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rapid Vienna 50% | Sturm Graz 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.946 / defence 1.041 | Sturm Graz attack 1.135 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.426. Data: 8 Rapid Vienna games / 8 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 25% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 44%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sturm Graz 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.69) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 25% | Sturm Graz 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 25% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 61% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.25 / Sturm Graz 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.946 / def 1.041 | Sturm Graz attack 1.135 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.426 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Sturm Graz xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 0 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 25% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-4L in 8 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-2D-1L in 8 | 2.12 PPG | GF 2.62 / GA 1.25 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.14x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
25%
3.99
31%
3.26
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.93
1.69
Sturm Graz xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
19%
5.39
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
5%
21.54
13%
7.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 9.0 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.69 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 2W 2D 4L from 8 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 1L across 8 games — 2.12 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.12 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 2W 1D 0L across 3 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.62 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 88%.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 4L in their last 8 games (1.00 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 5W 2D 1L in their last 8 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 2.00 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 33% for Rapid Vienna, 100% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Rapid Vienna and 67% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Rapid Vienna's games and 100% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 67% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 0-3 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.25 xG and Sturm Graz 1.69 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 25% | Draw 31% | Sturm Graz 44%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 50%, Sturm Graz 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.