Rapid Vienna 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Sunday 24 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rapid Vienna at home: 4W 5D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 62% versus Sturm Graz 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 56% | Sturm Graz 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.244 / defence 0.956 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / defence 0.765. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.583. Sturm Graz bring a tight defence (rating 0.765, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Rapid Vienna's projected output down. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 29 games and Sturm Graz's last 29.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.72 | Draw 3.56 | Sturm Graz 2.22. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.82 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.21 / Sturm Graz 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.244 / def 0.956 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / def 0.765 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 27% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.24x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.07x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 29 games and Sturm Graz's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
27%
3.72
28%
3.56
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.82
1.61
Sturm Graz xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
20%
5.02
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
5%
18.69
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.6 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.61 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 8D 6L across 39 games — 2.13 PPG, with D-W-W-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 7W 6D 6L from their last 19 home games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 11W 5D 3L across their last 19 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.82 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 25W 8D 6L in their last 39 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.42 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 4W 0D 2L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Rapid Vienna 3-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 68%, Sturm Graz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Rapid Vienna) and 47% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Rapid Vienna's games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 47% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 58% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG and Sturm Graz 1.61 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.24 / defence 0.96 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.77, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 27% | Draw 28% | Sturm Graz 45%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, Sturm Graz 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.